160 AXNT20 KNHC 110502 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Oct 11 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 22.7N 63.9W at 11/0300 UTC or 270 nm N of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving N at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 13N to 27N between 59W and 67W. Maximum seas expected will reach 23 ft. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. A northeastward to eastward motion is forecast on Sunday and Monday. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward the Bahamas by Saturday morning. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Jerry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An east Atlantic tropical wave axis is analyzed along 23W from 03N to 15N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted S of 11N between 21W and 29W. A central Atlantic tropical wave axis extends along 43W from 11N to 20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 14N between 41W and 46W. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 76W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm on either side of the wave's axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 86W and S of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted over the southern half of the wave, affecting Honduras and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W to 09N35W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 09N41W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 10N46W to 08N59W. Aside form the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 30W and 37W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Surface ridging prevails across most of the basin except the SE corner, where a 1007 mb is analyzed near 24N83W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from southern Florida southward across the Florida Straits to central and western Cuba. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas prevail over the NE Gulf, while moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a cold front, associated with a developing low pressure locate offshore north-central Florida, will move across the SE Gulf this weekend, and dissipate by Mon. Marine conditions will gradually improve across the Gulf region late Sat and Sun as a high pressure builds across the basin in the wake of the front. The associated ridge will sustain mainly a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and moderate seas into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Very moist southerly flow inflowing into T.S. Jerry is resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some strong, over most of the Lesser Antilles and nearby waters. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas dominate waters near the Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and moderate seas are over the northwestern and southeastern sections of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and waters near the ABC Islands. Light to gentle winds with slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, as T.S. Jerry continues to move northward, winds and seas will gradually diminish across the NE Caribbean late tonight into Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of Jerry bringing a return of the trade winds across the eastern Caribbean. A pre-frontal trough will move across the NW Caribbean this weekend. Moderate to fresh winds are expected on either side of the trough tonight and Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Jerry and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A stationary front is analyzed from 31N60W west-southwestward to 28N81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail along the front. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough seas are present near and north of the front. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and moderate seas in mixed swell is south of the front west of 65W. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed from 31N34W to 26N43W. Scattered showers prevail along the trough. For the remainder of the Atlantic outside of the area affected by T.S. Jerry, gentle to moderate southeast to south winds and moderate seas in mixed moderate swell prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Jerry will move to 24.6N 63.3W Sat morning, 27.4N 62.7W Sat evening, 29.6N 62.0W Sun morning, 31.3N 60.8W Sun evening, 32.0N 58.9W Mon morning, and become post-tropical and move to 31.4N 56.4W Mon evening. Jerry will change little in intensity as it moves to the 29.8N 51.6W late Tue. Tight pressure gradient just south of Bermuda result in strong to near gale-force E winds and rough seas. These conditions will shift north of our waters Sat afternoon. Meanwhile, developing low pressure system centered offshore of north-central Florida will move northeastward through the weekend. The associated cold front will extend from the low center across south Florida into the SE Gulf of America. Fresh to near gale- force winds and rough seas are expected on either side of the front late tonight through Mon. The front is forecast to move slowly SE and dissipate by Mon and the marine conditions will improve by Tue. $$ ERA