962 AXNT20 KNHC 031820 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Oct 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Large North swell: Large northerly swell generated by storm-force winds associated with extra-tropical cyclone Imelda in the northern Atlantic are creating very rough to high seas south of 31N. Expect 12 to 21 ft seas north of 22N between 76W and 80W to gradually decay and shift east-northeastward through Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon seas across the western and central Atlantic south of 31N should subside below 12 ft. This swell will also sustain dangerous surf conditions, significant beach erosion and probable local coastal inundation along the east-facing shores of Georgia and Florida, the north and east-facing shores of the Bahamas, and the north- facing shores across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin and Leeward Islands. Refer to your local weather agencies for the latest statements. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is exiting into the eastern Atlantic along the coast of Senegal, Gambia and Guinea-Bissau. It is moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 08N between 16W and the Sierra Leon/Liberia coast. There is a medium chance of formation for this wave over the next 2 to 7 days. A central Atlantic tropical wave is relocated eastward to near 39W from 20N southward. It is moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Dryness at low to mid levels are prohibiting significant convection near this wave. Another tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles near 54W from 20N southward, and moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 10N to 17N between 46W and 55W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near the Saloum Delta National Park, then extends west-southwestward across 10N25W to 08N34W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N34W to 09N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present near and south of the trough from 03N to 13N between 16W and 29W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted up to 85 nm along either side of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica and western Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Two surface troughs are creating numerous moderate to isolated strong convection across the central and eastern Bay of Campeche, and scattered moderate convection at the north-central Gulf and north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found at the northeastern Gulf and waters near New Orleans. Fresh to locally strong NNW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are occurring near and offshore of Vera Crus, Mexico. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits and Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the strong winds and rough seas at the northeastern Gulf and near New Orleans will persist through Sun morning as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and a low pressure system meandering near the Bahamas and Florida peninsula. A warm front is expected to develop in the central Gulf on Sun and lift northward into the southeastern United States, supporting slowly diminishing winds over the northern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas over the rest of the Gulf into next week. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong N to NW winds will occur offshore of Veracruz through this evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough reaches southwestward from an upper low over Hispaniola to western Panama. These features are enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 11N to 18N between 75W and the Nicaragua/Honduras coast. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring farther north across the Cayman Islands. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident at the south-central basin and the western parts of the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are found at the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds will continue over much of the Caribbean Sea into next week. A long-period N to NE swell, generated by extra-tropical cyclone Imelda and former tropical cyclone Humberto, will lead to rough seas in the Atlantic Passages and over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles today through this weekend, with moderate seas developing over the eastern Caribbean tonight. Seas will slowly subside early next week. Looking ahead, moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Sat night into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the very beginning about large northerly swell. A cold front curves southwestward from extra-tropical cyclone Imelda at the northern Atlantic across 31N49W to 23N62W, then continues westward as a stationary front to a 1012 mb low over the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 120 nm southeast of the cold front. Widely scattered moderate convection is evident up to 80 nm along either side of the stationary front. Farther east, a surface trough is generating scattered moderate convection southwest of the Canary Islands from 23N to 26N between 23W and 27W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Other than the very rough to high seas mentioned in the Special Features section, Fresh to strong NE to SE to SW winds dominate waters north of 23N between 44W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast, including the northwest Bahamas. Farther east between 35W and 44W, and north of 10N, gentle to moderate SE to S winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells are seen. From 10N to 23N between 44W and the central Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, light to gentle winds and 6 to 10 ft seas in mixed large swell are noted. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds will occur off the coast of Florida and over the northern Bahamas, generally north of 25N and west of 70W into early next week as a weak area of low pressure meanders near the Bahamas and Florida over the next several days. There is a low chance of tropical development with this system over the next 48 hours. Farther east, strong to near-gale force winds are expected east of a cold front in the central Atlantic into early Sat, with fresh to locally strong N to NE winds occurring in the wake of the front. The front will lift northward and weaken this weekend. Looking ahead, a tropical wave is exiting the Africa coast today. The wave is forecast to interact with another disturbance over the eastern tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some slow development of the system in a few days, and a tropical depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end of next week. $$ Chan