000 AXNT20 KNHC 030959 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Oct 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warnings and Large N swell: The post-tropical low of Imelda is N of the area near 36.5N50.5W. A cold front extends from the low SW to near 26N59W where it transitions to a stationary front, which continues W-SW to a 1012 mb low just E of the central Bahamas near 25N75.5W. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed easterly gales N of the low center and front where heavy showers and tstms were occurring. This convective activity has since shifted eastward and area surface observations suggest winds have diminished below gale- force across this area. Gale-force winds associated with the post- tropical low of Imelda are now occurring east of the cold front, to the north of 29.5N between the front and 49W. Seas of 12 ft or greater in northerly swell that have been generated in the past days from Humberto, Imelda and the frontal system cover the waters N of 24N and extend between 49W and 77W. Peak seas around 23 ft are near 31N57W. The gale force winds east of the front will shift N of the area shortly after sunrise as the low pressure center continues moving further north of the area. The large swell will dominate the western and central Atlantic waters today through Sun before gradually subsiding below 12 ft on Sun. This swell will generate large and powerful breaking waves along the exposed coastlines from the eastern Caribbean to the mid-Atlantic states of the U.S., likely leading to areas of coastal flooding and significant beach erosion. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 08N to 18N along 44W at 15-20 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles extending from 11N to 20N along 54W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11.5N to 17.5N between 47W and 53W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to 08N22W to 09N32W to 08N41W. The ITCZ then continues from 08N41W to 06N51W. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 03.5N to 12.5N between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 20W and 47.5W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The ill defined remnants of an old stationary front extends from the low pressure just E of the Bahamas near 25N75.5W westward across the Florida Keys then northwest to 27.5N90W. 1032 mb high pressure centered over eastern Virginia extends a ridge southwestward into the northern Gulf. The pressure gradient between this high and the frontal remnants of producing fresh to strong east winds across much of the NE Gulf, mainly N of 26N and E of 90W. Seas in the area area are 5 to 8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is across the coastal waters of SE Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Locally fresh N to NW winds are offshore Veracruz just W of a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche along 94W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring about this trough to the south of 23.5N between 86W and 96W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. and low pressure forecast to move across the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf of America during the next day or two will lead to fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough seas across the NE Gulf expanding into the north- central and NW Gulf through Sun morning, and accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds and seas will diminish late Sun as the low pressure lifts N and out of the Gulf region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms over the SW Caribbean south of 16N. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient prevails basin-wide, which is supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas, except for the south- central Caribbean where moderate easterly winds are ongoing. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will persist across the Caribbean basin through the forecast period, supporting gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas. However, northerly swell generated by Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda will propagate through the NE Caribbean passages, including the Atlantic waters just E of the Leeward Islands, building seas to near 10 ft Fri through early Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features about a gale warning and large swell associated with post-tropical cyclone Imelda. A cold front extends from the post-tropical low of Imelda near 31N53W to near 26N59W where it transitions to a stationary front, which continues W-SW to a 1012 mb low just E of the central Bahamas near 25N75.5W. Strong high pressure building a ridge over the northwestern Atlantic is forcing strong to near gale-force easterly winds north of the stationary front and low pressure between 73W and 80W this morning. Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are ahead of the cold front to about 49W. The Azores High and associated ridge dominate the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters, providing gentle to moderate E to SE winds E of 43W along with moderate seas to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from 25N60W to a 1012 mb low pres near 25N75.5W. Strong high pressure building a ridge over the northwestern Atlantic is forcing strong to near gale-force easterly winds north of the stationary front and low pressure, between 73W and 77W this morning. This pressure pattern will support fresh to strong winds across most of the area N of the front through Sun, as the high pressure shifts slowly eastward. Large northerly swell generated by Imelda will continue to affect the entire forecast area through early next week. Meanwhile, the low pressure along the frontal boundary is expected to shift westward across the northwestern Bahamas today then northwestward across southern Florida during the next day or two, and will continue to be accompanied strong winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. $$ Stripling