000 AXNT20 KNHC 011017 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Oct 1 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Imelda is centered near 30.2N 72.1W at 01/0900 UTC or 400 nm WSW of Bermuda, moving ENE at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are around 29 ft (9 m) near the center. Satellite imagery indicates that Imelda continues to become better organized with an ragged eye surrounded by deep convection, especially N of 28N and between 70W and 74W. A much faster east-northeast to northeast motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane will be near Bermuda this afternoon or evening and move away from the island by Thursday afternoon. Imelda is expected to be stronger, near category 2 strength, when it passes close to Bermuda late today. Imelda is then expected to become an extratropical low in a couple of days, with gradual weakening thereafter. Swells generated by Hurricane Imelda and Hurricane Humberto are affecting the Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Imelda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 21W, south of 20N, moving westward around 10 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 52W, south of 21N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 09N to 21N and between 40W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 06N30W and to 06N36W. The ITCZ extends from 06N36W to 08N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N and between 22W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak area of low pressure centered in the Bay of Campeche continues to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially over the western portion of the basin. Shallow convection is also note in the central and western Gulf waters, mainly south of 27N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds and moderate seas over the western and SW Gulf. Otherwise, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail in the remainder of the Gulf. For the forecast, a weak low over the SW Gulf will move southward over the next couple of days and weaken. A modest pressure gradient between this low and high pressure over Mexico will support fresh to strong NW winds off Veracruz late Thu and Fri. Meanwhile, building high pressure over the eastern United States combining with a developing low pressure along a frontal boundary will lead to fresh to strong E winds and rough seas in the N Gulf late Thu through Sat. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can also be expected near the low pressure and associated frontal boundary. The low pressure is forecast to lift northward on Sun allowing for winds and seas to diminish. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A subtropical ridge located over the central Atlantic extends weakly southwestward to the Caribbean Sea, supporting mainly moderate easterly winds in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will persist across the basin through the upcoming weekend, supporting moderate or lighter easterly winds and slight to moderate seas. Meanwhile, northerly swell from tropical cyclones Humberto and Imelda will reach the passages of the NE Caribbean allowing for rough seas Fri and into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Imelda. The combination of seas generated from Hurricane Imelda and those from now departed Hurricane Humberto has resulted in quite an expansive area of 8 ft and greater seas north and northeast of the NW and central Bahamas reaching to a line from 31N61W to 24N73W. Mixed swell is within this area of seas. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 ft north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Imelda is near 30.2N 72.1W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving east-northeast at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Imelda will move to 31.1N 69.0W this afternoon and north of our area Wed evening. Strong to gale-force winds and rough to high seas expected north of 25N and east of 75W shifting eastward Wed night through early Fri. Rough seas will persist over much of the basin through the weekend. A building ridge over the eastern United States will force fresh to strong E winds across the waters off NE Florida and the NW Bahamas late this week and into the weekend. $$ Delgado