000 AXNT20 KNHC 302137 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Oct 1 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Humberto is centered N of the area 34.0N 69.5W at 30/2100 UTC or 260 nm WNW of Bermuda, moving N at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Over forecast waters, seas 12 ft or greater cover the waters N of 28N between 65W and 71W, with seas peaking near 16 ft. Winds 20 kt or greater cover the forecast waters N of 23N and W of 63W. Swells from Humberto are likely to cause dangerous surf and life- threatening rip current conditions, affecting beaches of the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and much of the east coast of the United States over the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Humberto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Hurricane Imelda is centered near 29.4N 75.5W at 30/2100 UTC or 580 nm WSW of Bermuda, moving ENE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 25 ft just north of the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 28N to 31N between 75W and 78W. Scattered moderate to strong is elsewhere over the discussion waters N of 27N between 73W and 80W. Imelda is forecast to continue on an east northeasterly track and peak in intensity in the next 36 hours before starting to slowly weaken. The system is expected to merge with a baroclinic zone in the next 2-3 days. Imelda is likely to cause large and damaging waves in Bermuda. Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding across Bermuda Wednesday into Thursday. Swells and high surf from both Humberto and Imelda are expected to produce dangerous marine conditions and rip currents along much of the East Coast of the United States during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Imelda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 19W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 16W and 21W. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 22N and between 40W and 50W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W, and continues to 09N27W to 10N51W. The ITCZ continues from 10N51W to 11N60W. Nearby convection is discussed in the tropical waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough extends from 25N92W to 21N95W. A 1012 mb low is centered along the trough near 23N94W. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, prevail across the Gulf basin. For the forecast, low pressure and surface trough in the SW Gulf will drift southwestward over the next couple of days and gradually dissipate. Fresh N-NE winds are forecast over the western and SW Gulf through Wed night. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds will prevail across the eastern Gulf and Florida Straits through tonight. Otherwise, modest high pressure will lead to moderate or lighter north winds and slight to moderate seas through midweek. A stronger high pressure building southward through the eastern United States will lead to increasing NE winds, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the NE Gulf Thu through Sat. Fresh to strong NW winds will pulse off Veracruz late Thu and Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge is building across the Atlantic waters n of the area in the wake of Hurricane Imelda as the system shifts further northward. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian Low is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the waters E of 75W. Light to gentle winds are found W of 75W. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range E of 75W, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the eastern and central Caribbean through Thu. The pressure gradient will then weaken leading to moderate or lighter winds and seas through the Sat. However, northerly swell from tropical cyclones Humberto and Imelda will reach the passages of the NE Caribbean allowing for rough seas late Fri and into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Humberto and Hurricane Imelda. These two tropical cyclones are dominating the marine conditions N of 23N and west of 60W. Associated seas of 8 ft and greater cover the area north of 24N and west of 61W. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the Atlantic waters, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 30N35W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are in the vicinity of the tropical waves discussed above. Elsewhere, Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Humberto is N of the area near 34.0N 69.5W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving north at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Humberto will move to 35.3N 68.3W Wed morning, weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 36.1N 65.0W Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning. Hurricane Imelda is near 29.4N 75.5W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving east-northeast at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Imelda will move to 30.0N 73.1W Wed morning, 31.2N 68.7W Wed afternoon, 32.8N 63.4W Thu morning, 34.9N 56.7W Thu afternoon, become extratropical and move to 38.0N 51.5W Fri morning, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 40.4N 49.1W Fri afternoon. Imelda will change little in intensity as it moves to 45.5N 43.0W by Sat afternoon. Strong to gale-force winds and rough to high seas expected north of 26N and east of 73W shifting eastward Wed night through early Fri. Rough seas will persist over much of the basin through the weekend. $$ AL