000 AXNT20 KNHC 261058 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Sep 26 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Humberto is centered near 22.2N 57.3W at 26/0900 UTC or 400 nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are about 21 ft near the center of the cyclone. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 20N to 25N between 53W and 60W. A slow west- northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. Significant strengthening is forecast, and Humberto is expected to become a major hurricane this weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Humberto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Southwestern Atlantic (Invest-AL94): A tropical wave is along 73W generating heavy showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola and its adjacent waters. This disturbance continue to show signs of organization and an area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave today when it moves near the southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas later today or over the weekend, and then track northwestward or northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in this area should also monitor the progress of the system. This system has a high chance of a becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to he latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis near 26W, from 04N to 18N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 03N to 18N between 20W and 40W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 55W south of 13N, moving west at 10 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and extends southwestward to near 11N33W, then westward to 09N46W. For details on convection see the Tropical Waves Section. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany a pre-frontal trough currently extending from the Florida Panhandle to the NE Mexican offshore waters. Some of this shower activity may produce gusty winds. Elsewhere, relatively weak high pressure over the SE Gulf is supporting light to gentle winds and slight. For the forecast, expect gusty winds and rough seas near the surface trough today. The trough will weaken through today, then dissipate Sun. Weak high pressure ahead of the trough will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... PLease see the Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical wave (Invest AL94) that has potential to become a tropical cyclone. A tropical wave along 73W, Invest AL94, is producing heavy showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola and adjacent waters, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are behind this system over the E Caribbean with seas to 6 ft. A weak pressure gradient support light to gentle winds and slight seas elsewhere. For the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to form along the tropical wave today when it moves near the southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas later today or over the weekend, and then track northwestward or northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas will persist over the eastern Caribbean into early next week, and mostly gentle breezes with slight seas elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for further information on Tropical Storm Humberto in the central Atlantic, and on the potential for tropical development in the southwestern Atlantic with Invest- AL94. Hurricane Humberto is near 22.2N 57.3W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 990 mb. For the forecast west of 55W, Humberto will move to 22.3N 57.8W this afternoon, 22.6N 59.0W Sat morning, 22.9N 60.5W Sat afternoon, 23.5N 62.5W Sun morning, 24.5N 64.2W Sun afternoon, and 26.0N 66.0W Mon morning. Humberto will change little in intensity as it moves near 29.7N 68.8W early Tue. Meanwhile, a low is expected to form and become a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas later today or over the weekend, and then track northwestward or northward over the southwestern Atlantic. At a minimum, this disturbance will bring strong winds, rough seas, and scattered thunderstorms to the Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters Sat through early next week. $$ Ramos