000 AXNT20 KNHC 241822 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Sep 24 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning (Invest AL93): 1010 mb low pressure is centered near 19N54W, along a tropical wave axis. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 16N to 22N between 49W and 55W. AL93 has become better defined with showers and thunderstorms becoming better organized this afternoon. If these trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression or storm later today or tonight. The system is expected to move generally west-northwestward to northwestward into the western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, fresh to strong winds are forecast to increase to gale force speeds over the next day or so. Current 8-9 ft seas are expected to build to 10-12 ft through the next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: www.hurricanes.gov and the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... See above SPECIAL FEATURES for information on the tropical wave associated with Invest AL93. A tropical wave (AL94) is along 66W, from 22N southward, moving west at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 15N to 18N between 64W and 68W. This wave is expected to move west-northwestward at 15-20 kt, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and across the Dominican Republic beginning tonight. The system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic late this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development in a few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to perform a system survey this afternoon to gather data from the surrounding environment, if necessary. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: www.hurricanes.gov for more information. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, from 13N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near Dakar, Senegal, and continues to 10N30W. The ITCZ continues from 10N30W to 07N39W. A second segment of the ITCZ extends from 06N43W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N between 42W and 50W. GULF OF AMERICA... 1020 mb high pressure centered over the northern Florida Peninsula supports light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. The diurnal trough in the Bay of Campeche is producing some showers and tstorms, with moderate to locally fresh winds and slight seas. For the forecast, weak high pressure across the eastern U.S. will continue to extend its ridge into the NE Gulf into Thu to support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas across the Gulf waters. A weak cold front will enter the northwest Gulf by early Fri, reach from the northeast Gulf to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico by Sat evening, then weaken and stall over the southeast Gulf by late Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on a tropical wave (Invest AL94). Scattered moderate isolated strong convection, enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is evident in the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 11N between 76W and 82W. Elsewhere, the latest scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate trades and 4-6 ft seas across the basin. In the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, trades are pulsing to fresh speeds and seas are locally 6-7 ft. For the forecast, the tropical wave (AL94) moving across the eastern Caribbean continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles and adjacent Atlantic waters. This activity is expected to shift across the NE Caribbean behind this tropical wave through Thu. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the south-central Caribbean ahead of the tropical wave. These winds will diminish by this afternoon as the tropical wave moves across the central basin. Expect moderate winds and seas across the eastern Caribbean Thu through Sun, with generally light breezes and slight seas elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING for Invest AL93, which is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone. The persistent upper level trough across the southeastern United States and the Bahamas continues to enhance shower and thunderstorms in the vicinity of a surface trough across the western Bahamas. No significant winds or seas are noted with the trough at this time. Elsewhere outside of the SPECIAL FEATURES, gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail in open waters. These conditions are provided by the subtropical ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Invest AL93. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate or lesser seas will prevail through the forecast period. $$ Mahoney