000 AXNT20 KNHC 240002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Sep 24 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central and Western Tropical Atlantic ( Invest AL93): A rather robust central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from near 21N50W to 10N49W, or about 650 nm east of the Leeward Islands. It is moving west-northwestward to northwestward around 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N to 19N between 47W and 51W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves into the western tropical Atlantic well to the north of the Leeward Islands. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the 48 hours. Heavy Rainfall Expected for some sections of the eastern and North-Central Caribbean Islands: A vigorous tropical wave (Invest AL94) is analyzed from near 21N65W to 15N63W and to just inland northeastern Venezuela at 10N63W. It is moving west- northwestward around 17 kt. Behind it, disorganized numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N to 18N between 57W and 62W, including the Windward Islands. This wave will spread heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wed, and across the Dominican Republic beginning late on Wed. This system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development late this week, and a tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a low chance of formation of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 for more information on both systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Aside from the tropical waves discussed above: A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W/30W from 02N to 15N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 09N to 11N between 28W and 31W, and also from 04N to 07N between 28W and 32W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 88W from the northern Yucatan Peninsula southward across western Honduras and to the eastern Pacific Ocean near 08N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 18N to 21N west of 84W to just inland the Yucatan Peninsula ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Africa near 19N16W, and extends southwestward to 09N25W and west-southwest to 08N34W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N40W and to 09N48W. Aside from convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 32W-37W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A rather extensive upper-level trough extends southwestward from the southeastern U.S. across the eastern Gulf to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Divergence aloft east of the trough earlier helped to trigger numerous showers and thunderstorms over the most of the southeastern Gulf. This activity is showing a weakening trend during the past few hours. Elsewhere, a 1018 mb high is analyzed along the western Florida Panhandle coast near 30N87W. It is supporting gentle southerly winds with 1 to 2 ft seas for the central and eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail across the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the aforementioned high will maintain a ridge into the eastern Gulf through Wed, supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and slight seas across the Gulf waters. Looking ahead, a weak cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf by early Fri, reach from the northeast Gulf to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico by Sat evening, then weaken and stall over the southeast Gulf by late Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... PLease read the Special Features section about significant rainfall across the Lesser Antilles and near Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present at the south- central basin. Mainly moderate E trades and 3 to 5 ft seas are seen across the north- central basin, and at the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are noted at the lee of Cuba, and near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Earlier day time hearting resulted in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of Cuba and across some of the inland sections of Hispaniola. This activity is remaining quite active during the early evening hours. The eastern end of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and a few thunderstorms south of about 13N and west of 80W. For the forecast, a tropical wave moving across the extreme eastern Caribbean is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles and adjacent Atlantic waters. These active thunderstorms are expected to shift across the northeastern Caribbean behind this tropical wave tonight through Thu. Expect moderate to fresh trade winds across the south- central Caribbean through tonight ahead of the tropical wave, with fresh winds pulsing to strong near the coast of Colombia. These winds will diminish on Wed as the tropical wave moves across the central basin. Looking ahead to later in the week, expect moderate winds and seas across the eastern Caribbean Thu through Sat, with generally light breezes and slight seas elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the very beginning on potential tropical formation in the central and western Atlantic. Divergence aloft east of an extensive upper-level trough over the southeastern U.S. in combination with a couple of surface troughs, one that extends from 31N74W to the central Bahamas and the other one that extends from northeast of Jacksonville near 31N80W to just inland the Florida peninsula, stretching to South Florida is helping to sustain clusters of scattered moderate convection from the NW Bahamas northward to near 30N and between 75W and 81W Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds with 8 to 11 ft seas are present north of 29N between 55W and 60W. Otherwise, the gradient associated to high pressure of 1027 mb that is well north of the area near 39N36W is providing gentle to moderate NE to SSE winds and seas of 22N between 35W and 60W. To the west, gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate NE to E swells exist north of 22N and west of 60W. For the tropical Atlantic from 14N to 22N between 35W and the southeast Bahamas/Leeward Islands, moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft exist. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh southeast to south winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Major Hurricane Gabrielle is north of the area and well northeast of Bermuda near 34.6N 56.2W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving east-northeast at 18 kt. Although the main impacts of Gabrielle are north of the forecast area, fresh winds and rough seas will impact waters north of 30N between 55W and 60W through Wed morning, then shift NE of the area. Meanwhile, a surface trough will persist off the SE U.S. coast to the northern Bahamas into Wed, focusing thunderstorms in the vicinity. Farther south, expect fresh to strong wind and rough seas south of 24N tonight into Thu associated with a pair of tropical waves moving into the region. Looking ahead, the western wave will bring fresh to strong winds and rough seas to the waters off the Bahamas Thu night into Sun. A tropical depression is likely to form from the eastern wave Thu or Fri as it moves to the north of the Leeward Islands, then tracks west-northwestward through the upcoming weekend. $$ Aguirre