000 AXNT20 KNHC 221800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Sep 22 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Gabrielle is centered near 30.8N 62.3W at 22/1500 UTC or 155 nm SE of Bermuda, and moving north at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Seas are peaking at 30 to 32 ft near the center. Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 60 nm north and 80 nm south of the center. A turn towards the northeast or east-northeast with a increase in forward speed is expected Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday. Gabrielle will pass east of Bermuda tonight before moving into the north Atlantic. Some strengthening is still expected today, then a gradual weakening trend should begin on Wednesday. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are now reaching the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, and should continue during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest Gabrielle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, please visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from near the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N to 11N between 22W and 24W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 21N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 39W and 45W. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 20N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 14N to 18N between 51W and 58W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from just south of the Yucatan Channel southward across Honduras and Nicaragua to the East Pacific. It is moving west around 5 kt. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring near the Yucatan Channel, and east of Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Banc d'Arguin National Park. then curves southwestward through the southern Cabo Verde Islands to 11N43W. An ITCZ continues westward from 11N43W to 10N54W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is present south of the trough from 03N to 07N between 28W and 33W, and near and up to 130 nm south of the trough between 37W and 43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring up to 60 nm along either side of the ITCZ west of 49W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad upper-level trough over the central Gulf is generating widely scattered moderate convection over the central and eastern Gulf. A surface trough is producing similar convection in the Bay of Campeche. A modest surface ridge stretching from the Carolinas to Texas is supporting gentle E to SE winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft across the central and eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ESE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the western Gulf. For the forecast, the modest ridge will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas across the Gulf through mid week. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will enter the northwest Gulf by Thu night, and reach from the northeastern Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico by late Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Island heating is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over central Cuba. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate with locally fresh easterly trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E trades and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the north-central, eastern and part of the southwestern basin. Light to gentle winds with seas at 1 to 2 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the tropical wave over the Gulf of Honduras will move west of the Caribbean tonight, just as another tropical wave in the Atlantic approaches the Lesser Antilles. Expect moderate to fresh trade winds across the south-central basin through the early part of the week between the tropical waves, with fresh to strong winds off Colombia tonight and Tue night along with seas to 6 ft. These winds will diminish by midweek as the second tropical wave moves across the central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section at the very beginning for details on Major Hurricane Gabrielle. A persistent surface trough extends southwestward from 31N73W across the northwest Bahamas to the Great Bahama Bank. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen up to 130 nm along either side of the trough, including the northwest Bahamas. Enhanced by an upper-level low near 24N66W, convergent southerly winds feeding toward Hurricane Gabrielle are creating scattered moderate convection from 24N to 28N between 57W and 70W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the top for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. Outside the direct impact of Hurricane Gabrielle, fresh to strong SE to S winds and seas of 8 to 14 ft are found north of 27N between 57W and 59W. Fresh to strong SW to NW winds with 10 to 16 ft seas exist north of 28N between 63W and 65W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate north of 14N between 35W and 64W. To the west, light to gentle winds and 4 to 8 ft seas in moderate to large easterly swell are found north of 20N and west of 65W. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Gabrielle will move to 31.9N 61.5W this evening, then pass well east of Bermuda near 33.5N 59.2W by Tue morning, before moving into the north-central Atlantic. Meanwhile, a surface trough will persist off the southeastern U.S. coast, including the northern Bahamas into midweek, enhancing convection in the vicinity. Otherwise, in the wake of Gabrielle, central Atlantic high pressure will build westward along 27N to 28N providing gentle to moderate winds into midweek. Seas associated with Gabrielle southeast of Bermuda will gradually subside by midweek. Looking ahead, weak and broad low pressure along the northern portion of a tropical wave may increase winds and seas well north of the Leeward Islands by the end of the week. $$ Chan