000 AXNT20 KNHC 171043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Sep 17 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The tropical wave and low pres near 14N45W are now Tropical Depression Seven. T.D. Seven is centered near 13.7N 45.9W at 17/0900 UTC or 1030 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Rough seas are noted within the area of strongest winds. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 08N to 22N between 41W and 52W. Slow strengthening is expected, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Seven NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis extends along 22W from 19N southward, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 19W and 23W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed with axis near 63W from 21N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the northern half of the wave, affecting the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W and S of 20N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails along the wave axis, with activity approaching the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W to 12N53W. The convection near the boundary is related to the tropical wave along 22W and the now T.D. Seven. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Convergent trade winds are being enhanced by a robust upper-level trough over the central Gulf, causing scattered to numerous heavy showers and sporadic strong thunderstorms across southern Florida. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high over the northeastern Gulf is dominating much of the Gulf. Mainly gentle NE to E winds and slight seas of are seen across the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and moderate seas prevail for the remainder of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the Gulf through the week supporting gentle to moderate E winds along with slight seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and moderate seas are present at the central basin. Light to gentle winds and slight seas dominate waters near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and slight seas are noted at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the tropical wave along 83W will continue moving across the western Caribbean into Thu night, producing showers and thunderstorms. Expect fresh trades over the central Caribbean in the wake of the wave through tonight. Another tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the NE basin. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas will prevail into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on T.D Seven and the tropical wave moving across the basin. Modest convergent easterly winds are aided by divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank. Farther east, an mid-level low is generating similar conditions from 21N to 27N between 62W and 68W. A 1020 mb high near 31N52W is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas north of 25N between 35W and Florida/southern Georgia coast. From 12N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles outside the influence of T.D. Seven and tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas dominate. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds with moderate seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Depression Seven will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.8N 47.4W this afternoon, move to 17.6N 49.6W Thu morning, 19.0N 51.9W Thu afternoon, 19.7N 54.0W Fri morning, 20.4N 55.9W Fri afternoon, and 21.6N 57.6W Sat morning. Seven will strengthen to a hurricane over 24.0N 60.0W by early Sun. $$ ERA