000 AXNT20 KNHC 072309 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Sep 8 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 19W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 07N to 17N and east of 25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 17N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 37W and 45W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from central Cuba to around 11N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 73W and 81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritian near 19N16W and curves southwest to 11N46W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted within 200 nm S of the boundary. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak and slow moving cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 28N94W, then becomes stationary to 28N97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the front west of 90W. To the SE, a 1013 mb surface low is analyzed near 28N84W, with surface trough from 29N83W to the low to 26N89W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the low. North of the front, moderate N winds prevail. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle, with slight seas, except for moderate seas in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the low/trough will persist from the northeast Gulf to the central Gulf. The front will stall and replace the trough through early this week. North of the front, showers and thunderstorms as well as moderate to locally fresh NE winds can be expected. Otherwise, gentle winds and slight seas will prevail. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for information on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are noted in the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas dominate elsewhere, except for waters N of 20N and S of 11N, where winds are light to gentle and slight seas. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and Colombian low this week will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, with gentle winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will also prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for information on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Converging low-level winds and a mid to upper level trough offshore Florida are leading to scattered to numerous moderate convection N of the Bahamas and W of 75W. To the southeast, a surface trough is leading to scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 22N to 28N between 65W and 75W. East of 71W, widespread moderate to locally fresh E winds dominate as the basin remains south of an expansive north Atlantic high pressure. Moderate seas prevail. To the west of 71W, gentle southerly winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will move off NE Florida tonight then stall over the far NW waters Mon into mid- week. This will keep showers and thunderstorms along with locally hazardous winds and seas in place offshore Florida and north of the Bahamas during this time. Elsewhere, the Bermuda ridge will dominate weather through the forecast period, bringing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. $$ ERA