000 AXNT20 KNHC 071733 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Sep 7 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1732UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa this morning and it axis is along 18W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 07N to 17N and east of 20W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44.5W from 17N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 44.5W and 47.5W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from eastern Cuba to around 11N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 73.5W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritian near 19N16.5W and curves southwest to 10N30W, then continues westward to 11N46W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 05N to 10N between 20W and 26.5W and in between 31.5W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak and slow moving cold front extends from near Panama City Beach, Florida to near Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of this front west of 95W. To the southeast, a surface trough stretches from north of Tampa Bay to a 1013 mb low near 27N85W to 26N89W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is occurring between the low and the southwest coast of Florida. North of the front, moderate N winds prevail. Elsewhere, winds across the basin are mainly light to gentle, with seas 2 ft or less, except for 2 to 3 ft in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, a trough persists from the northeast Gulf to the central Gulf, anchored by 1013 mb low pressure near 27N85W. A cold front in the northern Gulf will stall and replace the trough through early this week. North of the stalled front, showers and thunderstorms as well as moderate to locally fresh NE winds can be expected. Otherwise, gentle winds and slight seas will prevail. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on convection in the western basin. Moderate to locally fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted in the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate elsewhere, except for waters N of 20N and S of 11N, where winds are light to gentle and seas are 3 ft or less. For the forecast, a relatively weak pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and Colombian low this week will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, with gentle winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will also prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Converging low-level winds and a mid to upper level trough offshore Florida are leading to scattered to numerous moderate convection N of the Bahamas and W of 74W. To the southeast, another trough is leading to scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 22N to 28N between 62W and 73W. The remaining convection in the basin is being caused by a tropical wave or the monsoon trough, and is described in the above sections. East of 71W, widespread moderate to locally fresh E winds dominate as the basin remains south of an expansive north Atlantic high pressure. Seas are 4 to 7 ft. To the west of 71W, gentle southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will move off NE Florida tonight then stall over the far NW waters Mon into mid- week. This will keep showers and thunderstorms along with locally hazardous winds and seas in place offshore Florida and north of the Bahamas during this time. Elsewhere, the Bermuda ridge will dominate weather through the forecast period, bringing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. $$ KRV