000 AXNT20 KNHC 062258 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Sep 7 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 17N southward. This wave is moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 38W and 42W. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, and the chances of this system becoming a tropical depression continue to diminish. The wave is expected to move generally westward at 10 to 15 kt, and will likely be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle part of next week. Interests there should monitor its progress. There is a low chance of development within the next 48 hours and in the next 7 days. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from Hispaniola southward into NW Venezuela, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W then continues SW to 09N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm on either side of the boundary. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Low pressure of 1013 mb is centered near 27N87W, with a surface trough extending SE into SE Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is depicted near the low/trough. To the W, another surface trough extends from 28N94W to 25N90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along this trough. Gentle to moderate SE winds are present in the SW Gulf, with moderate seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas dominate. For the forecast, the trough will persist from the northeast Gulf to the central Gulf, anchored by 1013 mb low pressure near 27N87W. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient over the basin will lead to moderate or weaker winds and generally slight seas through early next week. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf late Sun, then stall and replace the trough over the northeast and central Gulf early next week, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh E tradewinds and moderate seas are present in the eastern and central basin. Elsewhere, gentle winds will prevail, with moderate seas in the SW and NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds along with moderate seas across much of the central Caribbean into early Sun. Moderate winds and seas will follow elsewhere through mid week, except for gentle breezes and slight seas over the northwest Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends SSW from 31N77W to 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection associated with this feature is present W of 75W. To the east, an upper-level low and a surface trough are inducing scattered moderate convection N of 22N between 62W and 70W. W of 65W, gentle winds and moderate seas are present. For waters E of 65W, a tradewind dominant regime is leading to widespread moderate to locally fresh winds, with rough seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the trough off northeast Florida will persist into Mon, ahead of a cold front that move into the area by late Mon. The front will stall off northeast Florida Tue. This will keep showers and thunderstorms along with locally hazards winds and seas in place offshore Florida and north of the Bahamas during this time. Elsewhere, the Bermuda ridge will dominate weather through the forecast period, bringing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. $$ ERA