323 AXNT20 KNHC 061030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Sep 6 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 16N southward through a broad 1011 mb low near 12N39W. These features are moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 35W and 42W. Although relatively dry air will limit potential tropical development of this system over the next couple of days, environmental conditions may become marginally favorable thereafter. A tropical depression could form during the early and middle part of next week. There is a low chance of development within the next 48 hours and a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 days. The system is likely to be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week, and interests there should monitor its progress. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W from Hispaniola southward into NW Venezuela, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along and ahead of the wave to 75W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate to strong convection in the SW Caribbean S of 11N offshore Colombia and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritian coast near 20N16W then continues SW to low pressure at 12N39W and to 09N49W. The ITCZ extends west from 09N49W to 10N59W. Numerous moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 26W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 42W and 47W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Low pressure of 1012 mb is centered near 26N87W, with a surface trough extending eastward into Florida. Associated convection has diurnally waned, leaving the convection generally dry early this morning. Gentle to locally moderate SW winds are present in the SW Gulf, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft dominate. For the forecast, the low pressure, surface trough, and associated showers and thunderstorms over the NE Gulf will prevail this weekend. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the basin will lead to moderate or weaker winds and generally slight seas through early next week. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf late Sun, then stall and replace the trough over the northeast and central Gulf early next week, continuing unsettled weather over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trades are coupling with an upper-level trough in the vicinity to trigger scattered moderate convection in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves sections for information on additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh E tradewinds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present in the eastern and central basin. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds prevail, with seas of 3 to 5 ft in the SW Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft in the NW. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds along with moderate seas across much of the central Caribbean into early Sun. In addition, moderate to locally fresh E winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Looking ahead, a tropical wave currently in the eastern Atlantic may bring strong winds and rough seas to the Atlantic waters east of the Leeward Islands by the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends SSW from 31N77W to the NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection associated with this feature is present W of 75W. To the east, an upper-level low and reflective surface trough are inducing scattered moderate convection N of 23N between 60W and 67W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for information on additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. W of 65W, gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft ar present. For waters E of 65W, a tradewind dominant regime is leading to widespread moderate to locally fresh winds, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough extending into the NW Bahamas will meander over the far NW waters this weekend and be reinforced by a weak cold front that will stall over the same area early next week. This will keep showers and thunderstorms along with locally hazards winds and seas in place offshore Florida and north of the Bahamas during this time. Elsewhere, the Bermuda ridge will dominate weather through the forecast period, bringing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. $$ Konarik