570 AXNT20 KNHC 110458 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Aug 11 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0458 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Invest AL97: A well defined 1006 mb low pressure is located near 16.5N23.4W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted from 15N to 18.5N between 23W and 27W, while scattered moderate convection is depicted from 08N to 15N between 18W and 27W. Latest satellite scatterometer data 11/00Z indicated maximum winds of about 30 kt/35 mph with the low center. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a well-defined low pressure area located over the eastern portion of the Cabo Verde Islands. Only a small increase in the organization could lead to the formation of a tropical depression as the low continues moving across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and on Monday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue tonight and Monday across the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so, environmental conditions appear conducive for later development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This system currently has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 2 days, and a high chance through the next 7 days. For more information on Invest AL97, please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook on hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 57W, southward from 22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 201N17W and continues southwestward to AL97 near 16.5N23.4W to 10N35W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N-12N between 27W and 50W. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches across the far SW Caribbean along 11N83.5W and into NW Colombia. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen generally S of 13N and W of 75W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough extends from the Florida Big Bend W-SW about 28.5N85W to 28N90W, and is promoting scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection across much of the eastern Gulf E of 88W, from the NW coast of Cuba to the Florida Panhandle, and extends inland across much of central Florida and the Big Bend area. Recent observations indicate that S to SW winds of 10-15 kt and seas 2 to 3 ft prevail across the western coastal waters of Florida, and NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt and seas to 2 ft prevail north of the trough. Elsewhere, strong afternoon convection is shifting northwestward off the Yucatan Peninsula. Weak ridging extends across the rest of the basin, and is leading to gentle winds west of 88W, where seas are 3 ft or less. For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms in association with a trough may persist over the eastern Gulf through Mon. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf into late week, supporting mostly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh NE winds may pulse at night Mon into Wed west of the Yucatan Peninsula as a daily trough moves westward offshore into the Bay of Campeche each evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is seen moving across the Windward Islands this evening and into the NW Caribbean, north of 17N and west of 76W. The pressure gradient between weak high pressure north of the area and the Colombia low is driving fresh to locally strong E winds and seas of 5-7 ft across the central to SW Caribbean, between the monsoon trough and 17N. Fresh E winds and seas to 4 ft are present in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 3-5 ft prevail in the E Caribbean, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of basin combined with low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to locally strong winds and moderate to rough seas over the waters just offshore Venezuela and Colombia through mid week, mainly during the nights. Expect fresh to locally strong winds to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Mon night, with moderate to fresh winds pulsing nightly thereafter into Thu. Looking ahead, low pressure currently in the eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to track west-northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic and is likely to develop into a tropical depression during the middle or later portions of this week. This feature may impact Atlantic waters northeast of the Leeward Islands by Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pair of weak surface troughs S and E of Bermuda are leading to scattered showers N of 28N between 59.5W and 68W. An 1027 mb high pressure is centered near 32N42.5W. Moderate E to SE winds generally prevail south and west of the pair of troughs and into Florida, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. A trough of low pressure is located over the central tropical Atlantic (AL96). Scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 25N between 49.5W and 53W. Some gradual development is possible during the middle part of this week while the system moves northward over the central Atlantic. Formation chance through 7 days is low. The pressure gradient between the high to the NE and AL96 is producing an area of moderate to locally fresh winds and seas to 7 ft along the trough. East of this area, the pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure along the monsoon trough area producing an elongated zone of fresh to locally strong NE winds from SW of the Azores along 23W to 50W, where seas are 6 to 10 ft. South of the monsoon trough, fresh to strong S to SW winds prevail between Africa and 35W, with sea of 7 to 11 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging extends from the central Atlantic to the Bahamas, south of a stalled frontal boundary between Georgia and Bermuda. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and mostly slight seas through the early part of the week. Looking ahead, low pressure in the eastern Atlantic currently near the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to move WNW this week and is likely to approach portions of area waters NE of the Leeward Islands late this week. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this low pressure, and a tropical depression is likely to from by the middle to latter portion of this week. al wave, and a tropical depression may form by mid to late week. Regardless of tropical formation, increasing winds and seas from this system are likely to enter area waters by Wed night. $$ KRV