918 AXNT20 KNHC 081012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Aug 8 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 20N, moving WNW at around 10 kt. A 1011 mb low pres is noted along the wave axis near 17N38W. There is no significant convection in association with this wave or low pressure and thus, despite some fresh to locally strong winds E of the wave, development is unlikely during the next day or two. However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for tropical development in a few days and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while the low moves WNW to NW across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic. This feature has a low chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours and a medium chance in the next 7 days. Refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 14N27W to the 1011 mb low pres near 17N38W and then to 09N49W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 09N49W to near 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 15N and east of 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface to mid-level low pressure trough across the eastern Gulf is leading to scattered moderate convection east of a line from Apalachicola Bay to the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, dry conditions prevail as a 1019 mb high pressure centered in the NW basin dominates. Mainly gentle anticyclonic winds dominate the Gulf, with seas less than 3 ft. For the forecast, weak high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters into early next week supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh northeast to east winds will occur Mon night west of the Yucatan Peninsula as a trough develops inland during the afternoons, then shifts westward into the Bay of Campeche in the evenings and at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak trough mainly N of the region is leading to scattered moderate convection in and near the Yucatan Channel. Convergent tradewinds have also caused scattered moderate convection to develop early this morning in the SE Caribbean, about 150 nm offshore Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the eastern and central basin, with light to gentle winds in the west. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the eastern, central, and SW Caribbean, with 2 to 4 ft seas in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of basin combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to locally strong winds and moderate to rough seas over the waters just offshore Venezuela and Colombia into Sat, then mainly moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast through early next week. Trades may increase to fresh speeds over the central and eastern portions of the basin early next week as a tropical wave moves across the region. In the Gulf of Honduras, pulsing winds of fresh speeds with moderate seas are expected Sat night through Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extending from near 31N76W to Central Florida and another across the central Bahamas are leading to scattered moderate convection across the Bahamas and within 200 nm of Florida, including the Florida Straits. Another surface trough, the remnants of a stationary front, is leading to a 90 nm band of scattered moderate convection extending from 31N55W to 39N61W. The other convection in the basin is associated with the tropical wave and monsoon trough, both described in the named sections above. Most of the basin continues to be dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1024 mb center at 35N35W, with a ridge axis extending WSW to a 1019 mb high SW of Bermuda. This leaves the majority of the basin with moderate or weaker winds, but S of the stronger high, N of the monsoon trough to about 25N, fresh NE winds prevail E of 45W. Moderate to fresh trades also are impacting waters east of the Lesser Antilles to about 50W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft where the higher winds are noted, with 3 to 5 ft seas where winds are moderate or weaker. For the forecast west of 55W, relatively weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the region through tonight, except for occasional fresh pulsing winds near Hispaniola. Low pressure is likely to approach the eastern waters Sun into Mon and this low may organize into a tropical cyclone next week across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic while moving northwestward. There is a low chance of this low pressure...AL96...forming into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours and a medium chance over the next 7 days. $$ Konarik