000 AXNT20 KNHC 030913 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Aug 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. Updated to Add Special Features Section ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Invest Area AL95: A low pressure located along a frontal boundary about 180 miles off the coast of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for this system to potentially become a tropical or subtropical system today or on Monday while it moves east- northeastward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of North Carolina. There is a medium chance of formation for the next 2 to 7 days. For more details, please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from the Mona Passage southward into northwestern Venezuela, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring over Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and north-central Venezuela. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from near Jamaica southward across the Panama/Colombia border into the East Pacific Ocean. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is observed in the vicinity of this wave. The western Caribbean tropical wave was absorbed into the central Caribbean wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Senegal and Gambia, then extends southwestward across 11N30W to 08N40W. An ITCZ curves westward from 08N40W through 06N50W to north of Guyana at 09N59W. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring up to 60 nm along either side of the monsoon trough between 18W and 20W, and up to 50 nm north of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A warm front and a surface trough together are triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the central and norht-central nation. Another surface trough over the spine of Florida is causing isolated thunderstorms off Naples. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high at the west-central Gulf is dominating the much of the Gulf with light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas, except moderate winds at the southeastern Gulf. For the forecast, the warm front should become stationary later today and will remain so across the northern Gulf region through at least Tue, generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Wind and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. A weak low pressure is forecast to persist along the front in the vicinity of SE Louisiana. Elsewhere, a weak ridge will prevail supporting mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Pulsing fresh E winds are likely at night north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mon night through Thu night, as a trough develops there daily and drifts westward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trades are triggering widely scattered showers over parts of Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are seen at the south-central basin. Gentle NE to SE winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are present at the northwestern basin and waters near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin, including the Mona Passage. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the 1019 mb high near the northwest Bahamas and the Colombia low will continue to allow for fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south- central basin mainly at night through Wed night. The strongest winds will occur off the coast of Colombia, occasionally pulsing to near gale-force at night. Moderate to fresh trades over the eastern basin will diminish to between gentle and moderate Tue morning and then continue through Thu night. Moderate or weaker winds over the northwestern basin will become moderate to fresh Mon night into Wed as a tropical wave moves across the western basin and Central America. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is triggering scattered moderate convection from 20N to 28N between 62W and 70W. Farther east, an upper-level low near 28N45W is generating similar convection from 25N to 28N between 45W and 53W. Convergent southerly winds to the south of a stationary front are producing scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms east of northeastern Florida. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A large dome of 1022 mb high near 29N55W is dominating the western Atlantic north of 20N between 35W and 60W with gentle to locally moderate NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft. To the west, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 20N between 60W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through midweek, supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas mainly north of 25N. The northern portion of a tropical wave, currently moving across La Mona Passage, will move across Hispaniola tonight and reach the Turks and Caicos Islands Sun. It will pass the southeast Bahamas Sun night. The pressure gradient between the wave and high pressure east of the Bahamas will support moderate to fresh trades south of 25N during this period. Otherwise, a low pressure along a frontal boundary about 150 miles off the coast of North Carolina could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics through Monday while it moves east- northeastward at about 10 kt away from the coast of North Carolina. Environmental conditions become less conducive for development after Monday. This system is forecast to remain north of the forecast area. $$ Chan