370 AXNT20 KNHC 070016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Jul 07 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: Latest Meteo-France High Seas Forecast maintains a Gale Warning for the Canary Islands valid until 07/03Z. Seas in the area range from 8 to 10 ft. For more details, please visit the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24W from near the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving westward around 10 kt. This wave remains embedded within a deep moisture envelope. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and near the southern part of the wave. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 39W from 04N to 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are possible from 03N to 10N between 36W and 41W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 55W south of 16N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of the wave axis from 05N to 08N. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 81W south of 19N to central Panama and to the eastern Pacific near 06N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are west of the wave axis from 14N to 19N, ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward through 12N24W and to 08N32W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N38W, and continues to the west of a tropical near 09N41W to just east of another tropical wave near 09N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 27W and 34W and from 07N to 11N between 16W and 19W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A trough is analyzed from northeast Florida southwestward to across north-central Florida and extends southwestward across central Florida and to the eastern Gulf reaching to near 27N87W. A well pronounced upper-level low dropping southward as seen on water vapor imagery is near 25N91W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted south of 26N east of 90W and just offshore southwest of Louisiana. A weak 1018 high pressure center is analyzed over the central Gulf at 27N91W. Its related gradient is allowing for light to gentle winds across the basin, except for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along and just offshore the the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are over the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range, except for slightly higher seas of 2 to 4 ft in the central Gulf and over the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will persist across the NE Gulf through this evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue near and south of the trough through Mon. The weak high pressure will change little through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through the forecast period as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the central and western Atlantic and low pressure in Colombia continues to support a broad area of fresh to strong trades over most of the central section of the basin, and mostly fresh trades over the western and northeast sections. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere. Seas are in the range of 3 to 6 ft, except for higher seas of 5 to 7 ft from 15N to 18N between 72W and 80W, south of 15N between 68W and 72W and even higher seas of 6 to 9 ft from 11N to 15N between 72W and 76W, where fresh to strong trades are present. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south- central Caribbean through Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, with the exception of fresh to strong east winds in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, going into the upcoming week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on a continuing Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France for the Canary Islands. A trough extends from near 29N64W to 25N70W. A mid to upper-level trough is over this general area. This is helping to contribute to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over an area from 24N to 30N between 62W and 69W. Farther to the east, another trough extends from near 29N41W to 22N40W. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes show a northeast to east wind shift across the trough. These winds are of gentle to moderate speeds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh east winds are to the east of the trough as also indicated by the scatterometer satellite data passes. These winds cover an area from 25N to 29N between 32W and 37W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Over the western part of the area, moderate to fresh southerly winds are north of 26N between and 74W and 79W. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate east winds are elsewhere along with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except for higher seas of 5 to 6 ft from 17N to 25N between 34W and 53W where fresh trades are present. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the northwest part of the area due to a surface trough that extends from 31N79W to inland central Florida. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas related to Tropical Depression Chantal, inland North Carolina, are still affecting the waters offshore NE Florida. As Chantal continues to move away from the forecast area, Atlantic ridging will build westward toward Florida and the Bahamas. This pattern will support generally gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola going into the upcoming week. $$ Aguirre