004 AXNT20 KNHC 300515 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Jun 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Barry is centered near 22.0N 97.8W at 30/0300 UTC or 10 nm SSE of Tampico Mexico, moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted south of 28N and west of 92W. Peak seas occurring offshore Tampico are near 8 ft. Continued weakening is forecast, and Barry should dissipate over eastern Mexico on Monday. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 kt and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. Barry or its remnant is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Barry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 14N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 12N and between 20W and 28W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 16N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N and between 28W and 40W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 15N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is evident along the trough axis. A well-defined tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along 70W, south of 19N, moving westward around 15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing the convection in Hispaniola and western Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N30W and to 06N42W. The ITCZ extends from 06N42W to 04N52W. A few showers are present within 120 nm of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Depression Barry centered over northern Veracruz. Outside of the influence of Barry, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are found in the eastern Gulf waters. A high pressure system in the NE Gulf supports moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas west of 90W and also south of 25N and east of 90W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, recently-downgraded and now inland Tropical Depression Barry is near 22.0N 97.8W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Barry will move to 22.7N 98.5W Mon morning and dissipate Mon evening. Otherwise, by the end of the week, a weak cold front will likely settle into the northern Gulf.. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information. A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the central and eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. A recent scatterometer satellite pass also captured near gale-force off NW Colombia. Seas of 6-9 ft (2-3 m) are found in the central and eastern Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate seas are evident in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across most of the central and SW Caribbean through late week. Winds will occasionally pulse to near- gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more details. An upper level low is moving slowly westward over the NW Bahamas producing a few showers over the SE Bahamas and enhancing the strong convection over Florida and surrounding waters. Farther east, a surface trough is found SE of Bermuda and a few showers are seen near this boundary. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge sustaining moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 25N and west of 55W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft (1.5-2 m). Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere west of 55W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1029 mb high pressure system in the northern Atlantic. The tight pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa support fresh to strong N-NE winds north of 20N and east of 25W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft (2-2.5 m). Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found south of 25N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated ridge will prevail across the region through late week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. By the end of the week, a weak cold front is likely to move off the SE U.S. coast into the NW waters. $$ Delgado