516 AXNT20 KNHC 290602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Jun 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression (TD) Two is centered near 19.7N 95.1W at 29/0300 UTC or 70 nm ENE of Veracruz Mexico, estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. It is moving WNW at 7 kt, and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On the current track, the depression is expected to make landfall along the Mexico coast Sunday night and move further inland on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Some intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Mexico. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted up to 90 nm SW of center. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 100 nm NW of the center. Seas in the vicinity of TD Two are from 5 to 7 ft. TD Two is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall will increase the chance of flash and urban flooding. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details For the latest TD Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, please visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from just west of the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving west at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 24W and 28W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 14N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is present from 09N to 11N between 53W and 60W. A robust eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from 21N southward across the Virgin Islands into northeastern Venezuela. It is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up over the northeastern and east-central basin, including waters near the Lesser Antilles. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward to 08N30W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N30W to 06N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of the monsoon trough from 06N to 11N between 16W and 24W, and up to 100 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 30W and 42W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section on Tropical Depression (TD) Two in the Bay of Campeche. A surface trough north of TD Two is generating scattered moderate convection at the west-central and northwestern Gulf south of 26N. A surface trough near the west of coast of Florida is causing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. A 1020 mb high is dominating the northeastern and east-central Gulf with gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate with locally fresh SE to SSE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Gulf outside the influence of TD Two. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Two will move to 20.3N 96.0W Sun morning, then strengthen to a tropical storm near 21.3N 97.3W Sun evening. Afterward, TD Two should move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 22.1N 98.8W Mon morning before dissipating Mon evening. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the northern Gulf waters through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1021 mb Bermuda High continues to promote a trade-wind regime across much of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are triggering isolated thunderstorms between Cuba and Jamaica, and near the Windward Passage. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh with locally strong ENE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident at the south-central and east-central basin. Fresh to strong E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist at the northwestern basin. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas in NE swell are seen near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the East Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades across most of the central and southwestern basin into the middle of next week. Winds will pulse to near-gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras will continue through the rest of the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper-level low centered over the southeast Bahamas is triggering widely scattered to scattered moderate convection from 22N to 30N between 70W and the Florida coast. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1025 mb Azores High across another 1025 mb high near 28N47W to a 1021 Bermuda High at 73W. These features are supporting light to gentle winds with 3 to 4 ft seas in light mixed swells north of 25N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated ridge will prevail across the region through late next week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail south of 25N. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons into the overnights north of Hispaniola through Thu. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. $$ Chan