000 AXNT20 KNHC 282312 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Jun 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Two forms in the Bay of Campeche. This system is centered near 19.3N 94.2W at 28/2100 UTC or 210 nm ESE of Tuxpan Mexico, moving WNW at 6 kt, and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On the following track the depression is expected to make landfall along the Mexico coast on Sunday night and move further inland on Monday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Some intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Mexico. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm W semicircle of center. Tropical Depression Two is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals of 10 inches possible across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 25W, and extends southward from the western Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the mon soon trough, particularly from 08N to 11N between 23W and 27W. A second tropical wave is along 50W from 15N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A well-defined tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is analyzed along 62W/63W, from 22N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scatterometer data clearly indicate the wind shift associated with the wave axis, with fresh to strong winds mainly on the E side of this feature. Moderate to rough seas are within these winds. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted along the wave axis, mainly from 12N to 17N between 59W and 64W. This convective activity is affecting parts of the Lesser Antilles. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Dakar, Senegal to 08N30W. The ITCZ then continues from 08N30W to 06N47W to 07N60W. Aside from the convective activity related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 11N between 13W and 18W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on newly formed T.D. Two in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere outside of the tropical cyclone, a ridge dominates the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the tropical depression supports an area of moderate to fresh E to SE winds within about 300 nm NE of the tropical depression. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are seen across the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are building to 8 ft near the tropical depression. Slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, T.D. Two will move to 19.7N 95.1W Sun morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 20.8N 96.1W Sun afternoon, 21.9N 97.7W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 22.1N 98.7W Mon afternoon. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the northern Gulf waters through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, fresh to locally strong winds over the SW Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong NE winds are also noted in the Windward Passage, with moderate to fresh E winds in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Moderate seas are noted elsewhere, with the highest seas in the 6 to 7 ft range in the Windward Passage, and in the Gulf of Honduras. An upper-level low centered near the SE Bahamas is helping to induce showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, and between Haiti and Jamaica. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades across most of the central and SW Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to near-gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with rough seas. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras will continue through the rest of the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more details. High pressure and associated ridge dominates the entire Atlantic forecast area, with the main center of 1026 mb located NE of the Azores. Moderate to fresh trades are blowing S of 20N while gentle to moderate winds prevail N of 20N. Seas are in general moderate. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High and associated ridge will prevail across the region into late next week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. $$ GR