000 AXNT20 KNHC 271016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Jun 27 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall in Central America/Western Caribbean: The interaction between a couple of tropical waves that are described below and abundant tropical moisture will continue to enhance heavy rain and strong thunderstorms over the far western Caribbean and across portions of Central America into tonight. This will increase the potential for flash flooding and mudslides, especially in hilly terrain. According to the latest model guidance, the heaviest rainfall is expected to be near the northeast coast of Nicaragua and in northern Honduras. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 15N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection is seen near this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 17N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 11N to 14N between 47W and 52W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 16N southward across western Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident near the coast southeastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras. Another tropical wave is along 90W from the northern Yucatan Peninsula southward across Guatemala and El Salvador into the East Pacific. It is moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is association with this wave is confined to the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters into the Atlantic at the coast of Senegal near 14N17W, then curves SW to 09N31W. The ITCZ extends from 08N37W to 08N46W and from 08N54W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm N of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate convection S of 10N near the coast of Panama and Colombia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Convection associated with a trough just offshore the Florida coast has dissipated overnight. Scattered moderate convection is along a trough that extends just offshore the Mexican coast from Tampico to Veracruz. Otherwise, modest ridging is dominating most of the Gulf inducing light to gentle SE winds. SE are 2 to 4 ft, except less than 2 ft in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, a tropical wave will approach the Yucatan Peninsula today and tonight, bringing showers and thunderstorms that will move WNW into the Bay of Campeche Sat or Sat night. Low pressure may then form of this convection remains over water. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early next week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse each evening and night north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to a locally tighter pressure gradient induced by a thermal trough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section regarding the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of the western Caribbean and Central America. Convergent trade winds are creating scattered moderate convection in the lee of western Cuba and near the Cayman Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Wave sections information on additional convection in the basin. A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High centered near 28N66W and lower pressure along the northern coast of South America is sustaining strong to near gale force east winds and 8 to 11 ft seas across the south- central Caribbean. Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate the north-central basin. For the rest of the basin, moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong trades across most of the central and SW Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to near- gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, with rough seas. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras will continue through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low near 27N62W is triggering a cluster of moderate convection from 26N to 30N between 60W and 65W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Wave sections above for information on additional convection in the basin. Ridging dominates most of the basin, anchored by the 1028 mb Azores High centered near 34N30W and a weaker 1021 mb Bermuda High near 28N66W. This is leading to light to gentle winds N of 25N and W of 35W. To the S and E, moderate to fresh trades dominate, with some locally strong NE winds funneling through the Canary Islands. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the tradewind belt and around the Canary Islands, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated ridge will prevail across the region into the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. $$ Konarik