000 AXNT20 KNHC 252218 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Jun 26 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall over Central America: Periods of heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Central America, particularly areas in Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras through at least early Fri. Abundant tropical moisture persists over the region, supported by a broad cyclonic circulation and a tropical wave that is currently over Honduras and Nicaragua, and extends southward over Costa Rica. Showers and thunderstorms are occurring over NE Honduras, the eastern plains of Nicaragua and parts of Costa Rica, and western Panama. Areas of Nicaragua and Costa Rica are forecast to observe the highest amounts of rain today. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated based on satellite imagery and wave diagnostics. The wave axis is along 26W, south of 14N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical wave. Another Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated based on satellite imagery and wave diagnostics and is now along 41W, south of 15.5N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 19N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 17N to 20N between 72W and 80W. A tropical wave is along 85W in the western Caribbean, south of 19N across eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce convection over parts of Central America. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 09N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N30W to 05N52W. No significant convection is evident at this time. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through early next week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse each evening and night over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere through Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trade winds prevail over most of the east and central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt over the south-central Caribbean, offshore Colombia. Rough seas are within these winds. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific monsoon and the passage of tropical waves will continue to support fresh to strong trades across most of the central and SW Caribbean through Mon night. Winds are expected to reach near gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Thu and Thu night. Moderate to rough seas are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. Winds will increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Sat night due to a tighter pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific region, offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of an upper low centered off east-central Florida is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge anchored by 1027 mb high pressure centered southwest of the Azores dominates the Atlantic. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas south of 22N and west of 35W, with strong winds pulsing off the north coast of Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are active north of 22N west of 35W. Fresh to strong NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted east of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated ridge will prevail across the region through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas S of 25N. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to strong E winds will pulse late in the afternoons and at night N of Hispaniola through Mon night. $$ Christensen