466 AXNT20 KNHC 251639 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Jun 25 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1639 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall over Central America: Periods of heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Central America, particularly areas in Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras through at least early Fri. Abundant tropical moisture persists over the region, supported by a broad cyclonic circulation and a tropical wave that is currently over Honduras and Nicaragua, and extends southward over Costa Rica. Showers and thunderstorms are occurring over NE Honduras, the eastern plains of Nicaragua and parts of Costa Rica, and western Panama. Areas of Nicaragua and Costa Rica are forecast to observe the highest amounts of rain today. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated based on satellite imagery and wave diagnostics. The wave axis is along 25W, south of 14N. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 14N between 17.5W and 28W. Another Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated based on satellite imagery and wave diagnostics and is now along 40W, south of 15.5N. A few showers are seen near the trough axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 19N, moving westward around 25 kt. No significant convection is depicted at the moment in association with this wave. A strong tropical wave is along 84W in the western Caribbean, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce convection over parts of Central America. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 08N41.5W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41.5W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 11N between 28.5W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters producing in general gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the central Gulf with seas 3 to 5 ft. Light and variable winds and slight seas prevail over the NE Gulf and the western Gulf. Showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are observed over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen elsewhere across the western Gulf. A deep layer trough is helping to induce this convective activity. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse each evening and night over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Fresh to strong trade winds prevail over most of the east and central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt over the south-central Caribbean, offshore Colombia. Rough seas are within these winds. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific monsoon and the passage of tropical waves will continue to support fresh to strong trades across most of the central and SW Caribbean through Sun night. Winds are expected to reach near gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Thu and Thu night. Moderate to rough seas are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. Winds will increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Sat night due to a tighter pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific region, offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper-level low, spinning just N of the NW Bahamas, is generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the waters NW of a line from 27N54W to the SE Bahamas, including the area between the Bahamas and east-central Cuba and the Straits of Florida. The Bermuda-Azores high dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1028 mb center located near 33N37W. Scatterometer and altimeter data indicates moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas over the tropical Atlantic including the coast of W Africa, and between the Canary Islands. Fresh E to SE winds are noted N of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated ridge will prevail across the region through the weekend, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas S of 25N. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to strong E winds will pulse late in the afternoons and at night N of Hispaniola through the weekend. $$ KRV