238 AXNT20 KNHC 251008 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Jun 25 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall over Central America: Periods of heavy rain will continue to affect portions of Central America, particularly areas in Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras through at least early Fri. Abundant tropical moisture persists over the region, supported by a broad cyclonic circulation and a tropical wave that is reaching the coast of Nicaragua, and extends southward over Costa Rica. Currently, showers and thunderstorms are occurring over NE Honduras, the eastern plains of Nicaragua and parts of Costa Rica and western Panama. Areas of Nicaragua and Costa Rica are forecast to observe the highest amounts of rain today. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is added to the 0600 UTC analysis/surface map along 19W based on satellite imagery and the TPW product. In addition, the Howmoller Diagram shows the westward propagation of the wave, which is generating scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 06N to 10N between 13W and 20W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 15 to 20 kt. A few showers are seen near the trough axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W, south of 18N, moving westward around 25 kt. The wave is enhancing convection over parts of Hispaniola and western Venezuela. A strong tropical wave is along 83W in the western Caribbean, south of 19N, moving westward around 25 kt. The wave is helping to induce convection over parts of Central America. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 07N32W. The ITCZ extends from 07N32W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 10N between 20W and 31W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters producing in general gentle to moderate E to SE winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche due to local effects associated with a thermal trough, and in the Straits of Florida where scatterometer data also indicate moderate to fresh E winds. Light and variable winds and slight seas prevail over the NE Gulf where a 1022 mb high pressure is analyzed. Elsewhere, seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 3 to 5 ft over the SE Gulf. Showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are observed over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen elsewhere across the western Gulf. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse each evening and night over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong trade winds over most of the east and central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt over the south-central Caribbean, offshore Colombia. Rough seas are within these winds. Fresh to strong E winds are also noted over the Windward Passage likely associated with the presence of strong convection there. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades across most of the central and and SW Caribbean through Sun night. Winds are expected to reach near gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Thu and Thu night. Moderate to rough seas are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. By Thu night, winds may increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras due to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific region, offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper-level low, spinning just N of the NW Bahamas, is generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the waters NW of a line from 27N55W to the SE Bahamas, including the area between the Bahamas and east-central Cuba. The Bermuda-Azores high dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1026 mb center located near 33N36W. Scatterometer and altimeter data indicate fresh to locally strong trades and moderate to rough seas over the tropical Atlantic between 45W to the Lesser Antilles, from 19N to 24N E of 30W, and from 24N to 28N E of 18W to the coast of W Africa, including between the Canary Islands. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are noted N of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates the entire forecast area. Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas are expected south of 25N through the weekend, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to strong E winds are expected N of Hispaniola Wed through Fri night. $$ GR