000 AXNT20 KNHC 250439 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Jun 25 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall over Central America: Periods of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms will continue over the southern Caribbean and into Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras through at least Thursday morning as very deep moisture persists over the region, supported by a surface low and an approaching tropical wave. Southeastern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica are forecast to observe the highest amounts of rain today, while northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras are expected to observe their rainfall maxima on Wednesday. Please refer to the local Weather Services in the region for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 15N, moving westward around 15-20 kt. A few showers are seen near the trough axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 18N, moving westward around 25 kt. The wave is enhancing strong convection across Hispaniola and northern Venezuela. A strong tropical wave is along 81W in the western Caribbean, south of 19N, moving westward around 25 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 19N and between 76W and 86W. This wave is forecast to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica on Wed, increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms there. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N33W. The ITCZ extends from 06N35W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 13N and east of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A diffluent pattern aloft and a weak upper level shortwave are helping to induce scattered moderate convection over the western and central Gulf west of 85W. A weak pressure gradient result in moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 25N and east of 93W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft (1-2 m). Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a ridge extending from the SW N Atlantic waters will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Sun night. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas can be expected elsewhere through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Divergence aloft continues to support isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across much of the central and western Caribbean, while drier conditions prevail in the eastern Caribbean. A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the islands forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds across much of the central and eastern Caribbean. However, a recent scatterometer satellite pass captured near gale-force easterly winds off northern Colombia. Rough seas are present in the central Caribbean, while moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle to locally fresh easterly breezes and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades across most of the central and and SW Caribbean through Sun night. Winds are expected to reach near gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Thu and Thu night. Moderate to rough seas are expected within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. By late Thu, winds may increase to strong speeds over the Gulf of Honduras due to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific region offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper trough over the SW North Atlantic is producing isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 65W. The heaviest convection is seen across the SE Bahamas. The Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic forecast waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 25N and west of 45W. Moderate to rough seas are noted in the area described, with the highest seas occurring east of the Lesser Antilles. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas are occurring north of 18N and east of 25W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are evident between 25W and 45W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates the entire forecast area. Under this weather pattern, moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas are expected south of 25N through the weekend, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Otherwise, fresh to strong E winds are expected N of Hispaniola Wed through Fri night. $$ Delgado