827 AXNT20 KNHC 230556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Jun 23 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 14N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 07N and between 43W and 49W. A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles, located along 60W, south of 16N, and moving westward around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 14N and between 55W and 62W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, south of 17N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present over northern and offshore Colombia. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 18N, moving westward around 5-10 kt. This wave is enhancing convection over Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W, then curves southwestward to 09N24W. The ITCZ extends from 09N24W to 06N44W, and then from 06N46W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 150 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms across the southwestern Caribbean Sea. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers are observed in the Bay of Campeche, especially near the coast of Veracruz. Meanwhile, an upper level low in the central Gulf is producing some popcorn convection in the area and a few showers are seen in the NE Gulf. The subtropical ridge extends into the Gulf of America and a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds are found in the Bay of Campeche. These winds are partially attributed to the wind surge associated with the outflow boundary moving across the area. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft (1.5-2 m). Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the basin, except for light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through the period. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each afternoon and evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and moderate seas over the central and western Gulf will diminish early this week. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to locally moderate seas, can be expected thereafter. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Outside of the SW Caribbean, plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft result in isolated to scattered showers across the NW and eastern Caribbean. A broad subtropical ridge north of the islands continues to support fresh to locally strong easterly winds over much of the basin. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that the strongest winds are found in the SE and south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage. Rough seas are noted in the south-central Caribbean, while moderate seas are evident in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades over the central part of the basin through the week. Moderate to rough seas are expected within these winds. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are forecast in the Windward Passage tonight and again Mon night. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends southwestward from a 1017 mb low pressure (Invest 90L) near 32N57W to 24N70W. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure system near the Azores. Moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds are present south of 25N and west of 40W, with the strongest winds occurring near and east of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to locally rough seas are found in the waters described. Satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago showed fresh to strong NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and east of 40W. The strongest winds are found off the coast of Western Sahara. Seas are 6-10 ft (2-3 ft) in the waters east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a trough extends over the NE waters from a 1016 mb low centered near 32N57W, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms associated with it. The low is forecast to drift NE over the next couple of days. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to locally rough seas are expected south of 25N over the next few days, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. $$ Delgado