600 AXNT20 KNHC 221801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Jun 22 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is repositioned to near 43W from 14N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 06N between 40W and 44W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is east of Barbados near 56W from 16N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 55W and 60W. A Caribbean tropical wave is repositioned to near 72W from south of Hispaniola southward to near the Colombia/Venezuela border, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident near the Colombia-Venezuela border. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from the Gulf of Honduras southward across Honduras, Nicaragua, western Costa Rica into the East Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered moderate convection is found from the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula eastward to near the Cayman Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Mauritania and Western Sahara, then curves southwestward to 09N20W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 09N20W to 06N40W, and then northwestward from 06N44W to 08N52W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up near and south of the monsoon trough from 08N to 11N between coast of southern Senegal and 20W. Similar convection is noted near and up to 50 nm north of the first ITCZ segment. For the second ITCZ segment, numerous moderate convection is present up to 100 nm along either side. Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating numerous heavy showers scattered thunderstorms across the southwestern Caribbean Sea. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Tampico, Mexico. An upper-level trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a surface ridge is providing gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft for the eastern and central Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail across the western Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days. SE winds on the western periphery of the ridge will continue to transport abundant tropical moisture northward across the western Gulf through Mon, supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The stronger thunderstorms may be accompanied by gusty winds and locally higher seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas over the central and western Gulf will diminish early this week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for convection in the Caribbean Sea. A 1023 mb high near 29N74W continues to support a robust trade-wind regime across most of the Caribbean Basin. Latest satellite scatterometer data reveal fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas at the south-central basin. Mostly fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft dominate the north-central and southwestern basin north of 11N. Mainly gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas in NE swell are found near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the 1023 mb high and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the central part of the basin through midweek. Moderate to rough seas are expected within these winds. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are forecast in the Windward Passage tonight and again Mon night. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends southwestward from a weak 1021 mb low pressure near 31N57W to 27N65W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and up to 130 nm north of this feature. Farther east, convergent southerly winds are causing similar convection north of 28N between 47W and 52W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1034 Azores High across 30N35W to a 1023 mb high northeast of the Bahamas at 29N74W. Besides locally higher winds and seas near the two aforementioned areas of convection, this ridge is sustaining gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 24N between 43W and Florida/southern Georgia coast. Farther south from 20N to 24W between 35W and the Bahamas, moderate with locally fresh easterly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas exist. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are noted. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough/low is forecast to drift northeastward over the next couple of days. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will prevail. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to locally rough seas are expected south of 25N over the next few days, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. $$ Chan