000 AXNT20 KNHC 211753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Jun 21 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 35W from 04N to 14N. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06-09N between 33-36W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W from 05N to 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection trails the wave from 09-12N between 48-51W. An East Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 62W from 16N southward to eastern Venezuela, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are near the northern end of the wave axis, while scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across areas S of 11N between 56-64W, including portions of NE Venezuela. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 80W, from 18N southward across Panama and into the far eastern Pacific near 06N. This wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted S of 13N between 76-84W, also in the vicinity of the East Pacific monsoon trough which extends across the far SW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06.5N20W and then westward to 06N22W. The ITCZ is analyzed in three segments, which are broken by tropical waves moving across the Atlantic. One segment extends from 06N22W to 05N31W, another from 04N35W to 06N45W, and the last segment from 05N50W to 07N57W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is observed along and within 100 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ E of 31W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is analyzed inland over eastern Mexico, paralleling the coast from Veracruz northward. This trough is leading to the development of scattered moderate convection off the NE Mexico coast, as well as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Gulf and the Bay of Campeche. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh SE winds across the Gulf W of 91W, with moderate or weaker E winds to the E of 91W. Seas across the Gulf range from 4-7 ft across areas W of 91W, to 1-4 ft across areas E of 91W. For the forecast, deep tropical moisture will continue to surge north-northwestward across the western Gulf through the weekend, supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The stronger thunderstorms may be accompanied by gusty winds and locally higher seas. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each afternoon and evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds along with moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through the weekend before diminishing early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the SW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between stronger high pressure in the Atlantic and the Colombia Low is leading to a swath of strong to locally near gale force winds in the central Caribbean. Rough seas are analyzed in the Caribbean from 10-16N between 71-81W, with seas locally up to 13 ft offshore NW Colombia. Fresh to strong E winds and moderate seas prevail across the E Caribbean. The remainder of the basin is seeing moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. Convergent surface winds are leading to the development of scattered moderate convection in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the central to eastern Caribbean as well as the NW Caribbean, owing to deep tropical moisture embedded in areas of stronger and convergent easterly flow. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades over the central part of the basin through early next week. Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1033 mb high is analyzed near 39N33W, with a ridge extending from the high into the central and eastern Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in a large area of fresh to strong E to NE winds across much of the Atlantic south of a line running from Puerto Rico to near Agadir, Morocco. Seas across much of this region are 6-8 ft, locally up to 9 ft off the coast of Mauritania, per recent altimeter data and recent sea state analysis. To the north and west of the Puerto Rico-Agadir line, moderate to fresh trades prevail from the line up to about 25N, with moderate or weaker winds then prevailing N of 25N. Seas in this region are generally 3-6 ft. A complex upper-level pattern is in place over the central Atlantic, with broad troughing off the eastern US coast and a weak upper level low in the west-central Atlantic. At the surface, a pair of surface troughs are analyzed in the central Atlantic: one from 31N51W to 27N63W, and the other from 31N40W to 26N52W. These features are supporting scattered moderate convection in the general vicinity of both of these surface troughs. South of this area, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring near the Greater Antilles and the Turks and Caicos Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak trough will prevail over the NE waters through the middle of next week. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to locally rough seas are expected south of 25N over the next few days, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. $$ Adams