000 AXNT20 KNHC 211123 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Jun 21 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 31W from 04N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the wave from 04N to 09N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from 05N to 15N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection trails the wave from 08N to 11N between 41W and 44W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 57W from 05N to 16N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 240 nm east of the wave axis from 07N to 10N. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 78W south of 18N to across southern Panama and into the eastern Pacific Ocean to near 05N. Numerous strong convection is south of 11N from along the coast of Colombia to over southern Panama. This activity is being further enhanced by the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough that reaches to northern Panama and northwest Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along 12N17W and continues south-southwestward to 10N19W and southwestward to 06N29W. The ITCZ extends from 06N31W to 07N44W and from 07N46W to 06N54W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 31W-35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Atlantic high pressure ridging along 29N reaches westward to the central Gulf. The related gradient is allowing for light and variable winds over the NE Gulf and for moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over most of the western section of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 4 to 6 ft over the central Gulf and lower seas of 3 ft or less are over the NE Gulf. Ample deep tropical atmospheric moisture continues over the majority of the western Gulf as a very large upper-level anticyclone over Mexico has its eastern periphery over the western Gulf. This set-up is helping to keep active scattered to numerous strong showers and thunderstorms from 18N to 24N and west of 94W to along the Mexican coast. For the forecast, the deep tropical moisture will continue to surge north-northwestward across the western Gulf through the weekend, supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The stronger thunderstorms may be accompanied by gusty winds and locally higher seas. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each afternoon and evening during the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds along with moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through the weekend before diminishing early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in the southern Caribbean and in northwest Colombia is allowing for an extensive area of fresh to strong trades along with rough seas to exist across the south- central sections of the basin as highlighted by overnight scatterometer satellite data passes. Near-gale force winds are confined to offshore waters of Colombia. The scatterometer data also shows gentle to moderate trades are over the northwest part of the basin north of 18N. Seas with these winds are in the moderate range. Light to gentle trades are in the southwest part of the basin. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere. Moderate seas are with these winds. Water vapor imagery depicts a broad mid to upper-level trough over the western Caribbean north of about 16N and west of 75W. An upper jet stream branch runs southwest to northeast ahead of the trough from near northwest Colombia to over Hispaniola and to the central Atlantic Ocean. Upper-level jet dynamics working on a very moist and unstable atmospheric environment in place is resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to be north of 16N between 70W and 74W, including Haiti and the western section of the Dominican Republic. Other similar activity is over the waters between eastern Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the waters from 15N to 20N west 80W to just inland the coast of southern Belize as well as along and just offshore the northern coast of Honduras. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central part of the basin through early next week. Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. A tropical wave currently east of the Lesser Antilles near 57W will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight, move across the eastern Caribbean through Sun night, then across the central part of the basin through the middle of next week. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to accompany the wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 mb high center is analyzed at 25N62W while a 1025 mb high center is to its northeast near 28N35W. High pressure covers the Atlantic basin north of about 14N. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures in the subtropics and tropics is allowing for moderate to fresh trades to confined to south of 25N between 65W and 78W, and south of 22N east of 65W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these trades west of 60W and 6 to 8 ft east of 60W due to a combination of wind generated waves and long-period north swell propagating through those waters. Generally, gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere along with seas of 3 to 5 ft west of 52W, and 5 to 7 ft east of 52W except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in long-period north swell north of 25n and east of 27N. A couple of weak trough are analyzed: The first one extends from 31N54W to 28N65W, and the second one from 31N39W to near 26N50W. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms along and near these troughs, namely north of 26N between 40W and 63W. This activity is being further supported by a pair of upper-level lows, one of which is near 28N65W and the one is near 29N44W. These lows are along and east to west trough axis as seen on water vapor imagery. Another upper-level low is identified near the central Bahamas. To its east, the northern extension of a jet stream branch extends from the central Caribbean northeastward to near 25N69W. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds, with possible scattered showers underneath them are between these features. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak tough will slowly move SE across the northeast part of the forecast waters this morning, then stall into Mon as weak low pressure forms along it. The low may shift NE while the trough begins to drift back to the W through Wed night, and as weak low possibly forms offshore the southeastern United States. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to locally rough seas are expected south of 25N over the next few days, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. $$ Aguirre