000 AXNT20 KNHC 202248 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Jun 21 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 23W and 30W. An eastern Atlantic tropical is near 44W from 15N southward, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 10N between 42W and 45W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 16N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the southern half of the wave. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted inland along the southern half of the wave over Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along 17N16W to 07N27W. The ITCZ continues westward from 07N27W to 09N42W, then from 09N45W to 08N54W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm N of the ITCZ between 30W-40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Enhanced by a surface trough near the west coast of Florida, an upper-level trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the east-central Gulf. Convergent SE winds are coupling with deep tropical moisture to produce similar conditions at the west-central Gulf near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas are evident at the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. A 1021 mb high near 29N89W is supporting gentle winds and slight seas at the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds with slight seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, deep tropical moisture will advect north- northwestward across the western Gulf through Sat, supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The stronger thunderstorms may be accompanied by gusty winds and locally higher seas. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each afternoon and evening during the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds along with moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through the weekend before diminishing early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about convection in the basin. A 1022 mb Bermuda High near 27N66W continues to sustain a robust trade-wind regime across much of the basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and rough seas are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate E winds with moderate seas are noted at the northwestern basin, north of 18N. Light to gentle winds and slight seas persist near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central part of the basin through early next week. Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia at night through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details about convection in the basin. A couple of surface troughs originated from the north-central Atlantic are generating scattered moderate convection in two places north of 28N, between 40W and 63W. To the east, a weakening cold front curves southwestward from 31N17W to 27N28W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge stretches westward from a 1025 mb high near 27N35W to a 1022 mb Bermuda High near 27N66W. These features are supporting mostly gentle NE to SE winds with moderate seas north of 23N between 30W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the south from 08N to 23N between the Cabo Verde Islands and Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NNE to ESE winds and moderate to rough seas dominate. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong N to NE winds and rough seas are found between 20N-25N and E of 22W. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 10W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak front or trough will pass to the southeast of Bermuda this weekend. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to locally rough seas are expected south of 25N over the next few days, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. $$ ERA