000 AXNT20 KNHC 200413 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Jun 20 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0413 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of West Africa into the eastern Atlantic. The wave axis is near 20W from 14N southward. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 03N to 09N between the wave axis and 27.5W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 15N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 10.5N between 32W and 41W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 16N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association with the wave. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from south of Dominican Republic southward to northwestern Venezuela, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the central Caribbean Sea and near the Venezuela- Colombia border. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along 13N17W and extends southwestward to 08N26W. The ITCZ continues westward from that point to 08N32W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N38W to 08N48W. Convection near the area is related to the tropical waves described above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A peripheral rainband associated with the now T.D. Erick over the Oaxaca State, Mexico, is causing numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is also present offshore of northern and western Florida as afternoon land convection drifts to the offshore waters as it weakens. Otherwise, a surface ridge runs westward from northern Florida to near the Texas- Mexico border. Moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas dominate the southwestern and west-cental Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted at the northeastern and east- central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to SSE winds with moderate seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, residual deep tropical moisture from former eastern Pacific tropical cyclone Erick will linger over the western and SW Gulf zones through Sat leading to unsettled weather in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. This activity may be accompanied by gusty winds and locally higher seas. Otherwise, fresh NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and evening over the next several days north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds along with moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through the weekend, then diminishing early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin. A 1030 mb north Atlantic high centered near 41.5N40W continues to provide a robust trade-wind pattern across the entire basin. Convergent SE winds are creating isolated thunderstorms at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Strong to near-gale NE to E winds and rough seas are occurring at the south- central basin. Moderate to strong E winds and moderate seas are present at the north-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, except light to gentle winds with slight seas near Costa Rica and Panama. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge over the Atlantic waters north of the Caribbean and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia at night. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin. Convergent SW winds to the south of a stationary front near 32W are producing scattered moderate convection north of 30N between 30W and 45W. A pronounced subtropical ridge stretches westward from a 1030 mb high near 42.5N40W. These features are dominating the Atlantic waters north of 23N and between 22W and 77W with light to gentle winds and moderate seas. To the south from 07.5N to 23N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are evident. Gentle to moderate Ne to E winds and moderate seas prevail for the remaining Atlantic waters west of 35W, except for fresh to locally strong winds off of Dakar and near the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge will prevail along 29N. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas are forecast south of the ridge through the forecast period. Gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. $$ KRV