000 AXNT20 KNHC 152324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Jun 16 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 15N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, from 19N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted behind the wave from 14N to 17N between 73W and 77W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is near the monsoon trough from 10N to 13N between 76W and 81.5W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06.5N22W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 06.5N22W to 06N34W, then from 05.5N38W to 05N46W, and from 04N49W to the coast of French Guiana at 05N53W. Isolated moderate convection dots the basin from 03N to the ITCZ between 18W and 48W. GULF OF AMERICA... Popcorn afternoon convection is intensifying across the NE third of Gulf waters this evening, with strongest cells offshore of the western Florida Panhandle. A low level wind surge associated with an ill defined tropical wave has moved across the Yucatan Peninsula today with late afternoon convection now developing along the N and NW coasts. A narrow convergence line of showers and thunderstorms extends from the western Bay of Campeche along 96W northward to offshore of Tuxpan. The Atlantic surface ridge extends across central Florida and into the NE Gulf producing light to gentle winds across NE portions and slight seas, except near convection. Moderate SE to S winds prevail across the remainder of the basin, with fresh SE winds across much of the Bay of Campeche. Seas there are 3 to 5 ft W of 90W. For the forecast, surface ridging over the western Atlantic will persist westward into the NE and N central Gulf through the upcoming week to maintain moderate S to SE winds and moderate seas over the central and western Gulf, with gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas in the eastern basin. Fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each afternoon and evening through the week north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen across the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 14N and west of 76W, and extends inland across Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras, where strong thunderstorms and heavy rain area occurring. An upper level trough across the NW basin is supporting moderate convection aloft from south of Jamaica into interior portions of Hispaniola. Fresh to strong trades were detected by satellite scatterometer data across the central and southwest Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these winds range from 7-10 ft to the E of 83W and 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, moderate trades and 4-6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected to prevail across the central and west-central Caribbean through the middle of the week as a strong pressure gradient persists between high pressure to the north along about 30N and low pressure in the south-central Caribbean. Rough seas in E swell are expected in this region. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will also occur each night and morning in the Gulf of Honduras, and these winds will expand through much of the northwestern Caribbean Tue through Wed night after the passage of a tropical wave. Otherwise, mainly moderate winds and seas are expected across the rest of the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the entire tropical Atlantic basin, centered on 1027 mb high pressure near 32N40W. The ridge extends W-SW and across northern Florida, and continues to transport significant plumes of Saharan Air across the basin waters. Fresh trade winds prevail S of 22N between 34W and the Bahamas. Moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft are found across this trade wind zone. wind of moderate speeds or weaker trades and seas of 5 ft or less prevail N of 22N. Fresh northerly winds are found N through NE of the Cabo Verdes, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh trade winds will persist south of 25N through the middle of the week as high pressure remains over the central Atlantic. Strong trade winds will pulse each late afternoon through evening north of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, moderate S to SW winds will pulse offshore of Florida into the middle of the week as low pressure prevails over the eastern United States. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere north of 25N through the week. $$ Stripling