000 AXNT20 KNHC 131724 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Jun 13 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An newly analyzed eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from 16N southward, and moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection, likely enhanced by the nearby Monsoon Trough, is from 05N to 12N east of 26W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, from 14N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, from 17N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 14N between 61W and 70W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, from 18N southward, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from the coast of Panama north to 17N between 74W and 84W, including coastal regions of Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras. This convection is likely enhanced by a nearby upper level trough and the extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at 13N17W, and continues southwestward to 04N36W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N36W to the coast of far NE Brazil near 02N51W. Convection is described in the tropical waves section. GULF OF AMERICA... The Gulf is mainly influenced by the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge, allowing for gentle to moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas across the basin. A few showers and tstorms are evident in the NE Gulf waters. For the forecast, Atlantic ridging will extend westward across the Gulf through the next several days. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Winds may briefly reach strong speeds at times. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south-central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on tropical waves and active convection across the basin. The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure over Colombia and the SW Caribbean continues to support fresh to locally strong trades across the eastern and central Caribbean. These wind speeds were well-sampled by the latest satellite scatterometer pass. Seas have built to 5-8 ft across these sections of the basin in response to these winds. In the NW Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the basin and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas over most of the central and west-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and overnight hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected to begin on Mon, with passage of a tropical wave. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds are expected through early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the Tropical N Atlantic zones through early next week. Moderate to rough seas with these winds will gradually subside through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on tropical waves and active convection across the basin. The subtropical Atlantic high pressure allows for a quiescent basin, with moderate or weaker trades and 4-7 ft seas in open waters. For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will be the main feature controlling the wind regime across the region into next week, keeping fairly benign marine conditions. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N during each late afternoon and at night through early next week. $$ Mahoney