000 AXNT20 KNHC 120930 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Jun 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic just west of the Cape Verde Islands, extending from 05N to 17N with axis near 28W, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is seen near this wave. A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles, extending from 06N to 17N with axis near 57W, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from 06N to 16N between 50W and 60W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean, south of Hispaniola, with axis near 72W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the Dominican Republic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W, then curves southwestward to 06N30W. The ITCZ continues westward from 06N30W to 05N41W to 09N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 11N between 08W and 31W. Scattered moderate convection is evident elsewhere from 02N to 10N between 31W and 50W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous moderate to strong convection and tstms over the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, southern Nicaragua and NW Colombia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends SW into the Gulf and continues to provide moderate to fresh ESE winds over the western half of the basin and gentle to moderate SE winds elsewhere E of 90W. Over the Bay of Campeche, a surface trough is generating heavy showers and tstms. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to locally strong winds in this area of convection. Wave heights are 3 to 6 ft west of 90W while altimeter data show 1 to 3 ft seas across the eastern basin. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain across the Gulf through the next several days. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon and evening, north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Winds are expected to briefly reach strong speeds at times. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south-central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Bermuda High continues to support fresh trade winds over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh easterlies and seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere across the SW and NW basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas over most of the central and west-central basin through early next week. Winds will pulse and reach fresh to strong near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and overnight hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected Mon and Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds are expected through early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the Tropical North Atlantic zones through early next week. Moderate to rough seas with these winds will subside late Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda High of 1027 mb and its associated ridge dominates the entire subtropical Atlantic waters and extends into the tropics to about 14N. Mostly gentle to moderate NE to E winds are across the subtropical waters between 30W and 65W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are elsewhere W of 65W, except for moderate to fresh in the Great Bahama Bank, approaches of the Windward Passage and N of Hispaniola. Seas are moderate across these waters. Between the NW coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE and seas are 5 to 8 ft. Lastly, fresh trades between 45W and the Lesser Antilles support 7 to 8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high and related subtropical ridge will be the main feature controlling the wind regime throughout the region through Mon night. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N during each late afternoon and at night through early next week. $$ Ramos