836 AXNT20 KNHC 110603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Jun 11 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from the eastern Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 08N between 20W and 26W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W from 16N southward, and moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N 09N between 47W and 51W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from near the Virgin Islands southward to central Venezuela. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over central Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward to 07N26W. An ITCZ continues westward from 07N26W through 05N35W to 07N48W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is found from south of the monsoon trough from 06N to 11N between 10W and 20W. Widely scattered moderate convection is present near and up to 160 nm along either side of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northwest Colombia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is causing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the north-central and east-central Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge runs west-southwestward from central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate E to SE to S winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are found over the eastern Gulf. Fresh to strong easterly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will persist across the Gulf through the next several days. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon and evening from north of the Yucatan Peninsula into the eastern Bay of Campeche, as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Winds are expected to briefly become strong at times. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south-central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Surface ridging near 28N, associated with a Bermuda-Azores High continues to sustain trade winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are producing widely scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms near Hispaniola, the Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds along with seas of 7 to 9 ft are impacting the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are found near the northwestern basin and at the most southwestern basin. Fresh with locally strong E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Carribenin shop. For the forecast, the ridge north of the region combined with the Colombian Low will lead to fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas across most of the central Caribbean, spreading westward through the week as a tropical wave moves through the basin. Winds will pulse between fresh and strong near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and overnight hours. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds are expected. E of the Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas will persist through al least early Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A subtropical ridge stretches southwestward from a 1029 mb Bermuda-Azores High at 33N42W to beyond central Florida. These features are supporting gentle to moderate ESE to ENE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft for the Atlantic north of 24N between 35W and 55W. Farther west, gentle to moderate E to SE to S winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail north of 20N between 55W and the Bahamas/Florida. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N west of 35W, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to ESE winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of Atlantic west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the forecast area this week producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. This system will move westward over the next few days while weakening. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected N of Hispaniola to about 22N each late afternoon and night through at least Fri night. $$ Chan