424 AXNT20 KNHC 110009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Jun 11 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N-10N east of 25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N-13N and between 45W-55W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are occurring from 13N-15N from 55W-62W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08N25W to 05N47W and then from 05N50W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N-10N east of 25W. The Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward across Central America to 11N73W near coastal NE Colombia. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 12N in the SW Caribbean. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak ridging across the Gulf is forcing only gentle winds across forecast waters with seas 2-4 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring north of 28N west of 88W. This in association with a large convective system mainly over coastal Louisiana to the Florida panhandle, being triggered by a stationary front to its north. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High will extend its ridge across the Gulf region through the next several days. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Winds are expected to briefly reach strong speeds at times. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south-central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more details. Ridging north of the Caribbean combined with a 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong trades across the central and E Caribbean today. Winds are gentle to moderate E to SE trades cover the W Caribbean. Seas are 5-9 ft in the central and SW Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the E Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 12N in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, the ridge N of the region combined with the Colombian Low will lead to fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas across most of the central Caribbean, spreading westward through the week as a tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean moves through the basin. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and overnight hours. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds are expected. E of the Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas will persist through al least early Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for more details. A 1029 mb Bermuda-Azores High is centered at 33N43W with ridging extending westward to 29N80W and eastward to 30N10W. The pressure gradient from the ridge to the ITCZ/monsoon trough is causing moderate to fresh NE to E trades south of 23N with seas 6-9 ft. Locally strong trades are occurring just north of Hispaniola, between the Cabo Verde Islands, and along the coast of Mauritania and Western Sahara. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate with seas 4-6 ft. No significant deep convection is occurring away from the Tropical Waves and ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the forecast area this week producing mainly a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. This system will move westward over the next three days while slightly weakening. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected N of Hispaniola to about 22N each late afternoon and night through at least Fri night. $$ Landsea