392 AXNT20 KNHC 101639 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Jun 10 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1605 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers are seen near the southern portion of the trough axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 11N and between 52W and 47W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N and between 52W and 63W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07N25W to 06N45W and then from 06N50W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is evident south of 09N and east of 21W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Low-level convergence is leading to some showers and isolated thunderstorms in the NE Gulf waters, while generally dry conditions prevail elsewhere in the basin. A weak pressure gradient supports mainly light to gentle anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the Gulf waters. However, moderate to occasionally E-SE winds are found off northern Yucatan and in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend its ridge across the Gulf through the next several days. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward, and briefly reach strong speeds at times. Moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere in the western and south-central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for more details. Abundant tropical moisture and support aloft result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean, also affecting NW Colombia and Panama. The subtropical ridge located well north of the islands forces fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft (2-3 m), except for seas of 3-4 ft (1 m) in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure N of the region will prevail through the week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin, spreading westward through the week as a tropical wave currently in the Tropical N Atlantic moves through the basin. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the SW Caribbean. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening hours. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas will be rough with the strongest winds, as well as in the Tropical N Atlantic, continuing through the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for more details. The seasonal 1030 mb Bermuda-Azores High centered near 34N45W continues to dominate the entire tropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong trades are along the southern periphery of the ridge, particularly south of 18N and west of 40W. Rough seas are within these winds. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are north of Hispaniola, including the Turks and Caicos Islands to about 23N, with moderate seas. Fresh to strong winds are also noted between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will build modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida through today, then weaken slightly thereafter. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola, with pulsing moderate to fresh winds off NE Florida and elsewhere south of 22N through the midweek until the high weakens. Fresh to strong winds off NE Florida will dissipate late this morning as a frontal trough off the Carolinas weakens. $$ Delgado