167 AXNT20 KNHC 091721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Jun 9 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A third tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis. Its axis runs along 20W from 03N to 15N. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 10N between 16W and 23W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W from 02N to 12N, and is moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis. Convergent surface winds between this wave and ridging to the north is helping to develop scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 11N to 15N between 38W and 49W. Another central Atlantic tropical wave axis has its axis along 57W S of 17N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 10N between 54W-58W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N19W. The ITCZ is analyzed in two segments, broken by a tropical along along 40W. One segment runs from 07N21W to 06N35W, and the other from 08N43W to 09N54W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and within 250 nm of these features. The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean to the Colombia Low. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed in the far SW Caribbean, generally south of 12N. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the NW Gulf, in the vicinity of an outflow boundary. Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure extends westward to the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail west of 90W, except for moderate to fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche. East of 90W, light to gentle winds prevail, except for moderate winds over the northeast Gulf. Slight seas at 3 ft or less are noted east of 89W, while moderate seas 3 to 5 ft prevail west of 89W. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend its ridge into the eastern Gulf, building modestly westward into the central Gulf through the week. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward, with moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere in the western and south-central Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for details on convection in the SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras. More scattered showers and thunderstorms, associated with an upper-level trough, are observed via satellite off the coasts of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in South America is supporting fresh to strong trades over the central and SW Caribbean, where seas are 6 to 8 ft, except for 9 to 10 ft seas analyzed offshore of NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere across the basin along with moderate seas, except for the NW Caribbean where light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure N of the region will prevail through the week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin, spreading westward through the week as a tropical wave currently in the Tropical N Atlantic moves through the basin, except in the SW Caribbean where winds will be weaker. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening hours. Mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas will build to rough with the increasing winds, as well as in the Tropical N Atlantic today, continuing through the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Tropical Waves and the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for details on convection associated with these features. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing in an area N of 29N between 75W and 78W, with the strongest convection producing fresh to locally strong winds. Otherwise, much of the basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge that is anchored by a 1030 mb high analyzed well north of the area near 35N44W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail south of 22N, from the W coast of Africa to the Lesser Antilles and to the Turks and Caicos. Moderate or weaker winds prevail across much of the remaining waters N of 22N. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail S of 20N, with seas of 4-6 ft prevailing to the N of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will build modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida through Tue, then weaken slightly thereafter. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola, with pulsing moderate to fresh winds off NE Florida and elsewhere south of 22N through the early part of the week until the high weakens. Winds may briefly increase to fresh to strong off NE Florida tonight. $$ Adams