919 AXNT20 KNHC 080445 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Jun 8 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave axis has been relocated and is now analyzed along 53W from French Guinea to 11N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the wave axis, west of the wave to Suriname, and east of the wave over northeast Brazil. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 09N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ that extends from 09N20W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm north and south of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure continues to extend westward from the Atlantic to across Florida and the central Gulf waters. While, a trough is analyzed over the Yucatan Peninsula. The related gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate winds west of 90W, except for fresh lo locally strong NE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. East of 90W, light to gentle winds prevail, except for moderate winds over the NE part of the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft throughout the basin. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend its ridge into the eastern Gulf through the weekend, then build modestly westward into the central Gulf through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward, with moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere in the western and south- central Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in South America is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the central basin along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate trades and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail in the eastern and western Caribbean. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident south of 15N and west of 80W. For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the region and centered W of Bermuda will shift NE and into the N central Atlantic through the weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build SW into the Bahamas and S Florida through the middle of the week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin, spreading westward through the middle of next week, except in the SW Caribbean where winds will be weaker. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Seas will build to rough with the increasing winds, as well as in the Tropical N Atlantic by early next week through at least mid- week. Of Note: A potential for significant rain continues into early next week across eastern Nicaragua and possibly into northeast Honduras as unsettled weather is forecast to develop across the area. Uncertainty in terms of rainfall amounts is high at this time. Please refer to your local meteorological office for more details. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section above for details. Fo the western Atlantic, moderate S to SW winds are noted north of 27N and west of 68W due to a somewhat tide pressure gradient over the area. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by high pressure of 1030 mb centered near the Azores. Gentle to moderate trades and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail north of 21N. South of 21N, moderate to locally fresh trades prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will build modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida through Tue, then weaken slightly by mid-week. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola early next week, with pulsing moderate to fresh winds off NE Florida and elsewhere south of 22N. These winds will weaken somewhat mid- week as the high weakens. $$ KRV