417 AXNT20 KNHC 072307 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Jun 08 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W from 02N to 11N moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are west of the wave to inland French Guiana and to inland the northeast section of Brazil. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 09N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 05N45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 21W-26W, and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 33W-45W. GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure continues to extend westward from the Atlantic to across Florida and the central Gulf waters. A trough is analyzed over the western Bay of Campeche along 95W/96W south of 23N. Isolated showers are near the trough, except for scattered showers a few thunderstorms along and within 30 nm of the coast of Mexico near Veracruz. The related gradient is allowing for generally light to gentle southeast to south winds, except for gentle to moderate southeast to south winds in the western half of the basin and for light south to southwest winds in the NE section. Seas are 2-4 ft throughout. A weak surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche. Winds may pulse to moderate speeds off the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the NW Gulf off the coasts of Texas and Mexico. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend its ridge into the eastern Gulf through the weekend, then build modestly westward into the central Gulf through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward, with moderate to fresh southeast winds elsewhere in the western and south-central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in South America is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of Venezuela, as noted in the most recent satellite scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the central basin along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail in the eastern and western Caribbean. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident on satellite imagery along the coast of Nicaragua. For the forecast, weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will shift northeastward and into the N central Atlantic through the weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build southwestward SW into the Bahamas and S Florida later today through the middle of next week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin, spreading westward through the middle of next week, except in the SW Caribbean where winds will be weaker. Moderate to fresh winds will be mainly elsewhere. Seas will build to rough status with the increasing winds, as well as in the Tropical N Atlantic by early next week through at least mid-week. Of Note: A potential for significant rain exist into early next week across eastern Nicaragua and possibly into northeast Honduras as unsettled weather is forecast to develop across the area. Uncertainty in terms of rainfall amounts is high at this time. Please refer to your local meteorological office for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section above for details. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by high pressure of 1031 mb centered near the Azores. Gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the basin. Isolated showers are north of 29N between 61W and 76W. For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough near 79W will continue to enhance weather east of it mainly N of 29N. Atlantic high pressure will build modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida through Tue, then weaken slightly by mid-week. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola early next week, with pulsing moderate to fresh winds off NE Florida and elsewhere south of 22N. These winds will weaken somewhat at midweek as the high weakens. $$ Aguirre