417 
AXNT20 KNHC 072307
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jun 08 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W from 02N
to 11N moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are west of the wave to inland French Guiana and 
to inland the northeast section of Brazil.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 09N19W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 05N45W. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm south of 
the ITCZ between 21W-26W, and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ
between 33W-45W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure continues to extend westward from the Atlantic to
across Florida and the central Gulf waters. A trough is analyzed
over the western Bay of Campeche along 95W/96W south of 23N. 
Isolated showers are near the trough, except for scattered 
showers a few thunderstorms along and within 30 nm of the coast 
of Mexico near Veracruz. The related gradient is allowing for 
generally light to gentle southeast to south winds, except for 
gentle to moderate southeast to south winds in the western half 
of the basin and for light south to southwest winds in the NE 
section. Seas are 2-4 ft throughout. A weak surface trough is in 
the Bay of Campeche. Winds may pulse to moderate speeds off the 
tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the NW Gulf off the coasts of
Texas and Mexico.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend its ridge 
into the eastern Gulf through the weekend, then build modestly 
westward into the central Gulf through the middle of next week. 
Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are expected each 
afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the
eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves 
westward, with moderate to fresh southeast winds elsewhere in the
western and south-central Gulf. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and 
relatively lower pressures in South America is supporting fresh 
to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and the Gulf of
Venezuela, as noted in the most recent satellite scatterometer 
data. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere in the central 
basin along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate trades 
and 3-5 ft seas prevail in the eastern and western Caribbean. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident on 
satellite imagery along the coast of Nicaragua.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the western Atlantic
will shift northeastward and into the N central Atlantic through
the weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build southwestward 
SW into the Bahamas and S Florida later today through the middle 
of next week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades 
and moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin, 
spreading westward through the middle of next week, except in the
SW Caribbean where winds will be weaker. Moderate to fresh winds
will be mainly elsewhere. Seas will build to rough status with 
the increasing winds, as well as in the Tropical N Atlantic by 
early next week through at least mid-week. 

Of Note: A potential for significant rain exist into early next 
week across eastern Nicaragua and possibly into northeast 
Honduras as unsettled weather is forecast to develop across the 
area. Uncertainty in terms of rainfall amounts is high at this 
time. Please refer to your local meteorological office for more 
details. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is analyzed over the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

The tropical Atlantic is dominated by high pressure of 1031 mb
centered near the Azores. Gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft 
seas prevail across the basin. Isolated showers are north of 
29N between 61W and 76W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough near 79W will 
continue to enhance weather east of it mainly N of 29N. Atlantic
high pressure will build modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S 
Florida through Tue, then weaken slightly by mid-week. Expect 
fresh to strong winds to pulse each afternoon and evening 
offshore of Hispaniola early next week, with pulsing moderate to 
fresh winds off NE Florida and elsewhere south of 22N. These 
winds will weaken somewhat at midweek as the high weakens.

$$
Aguirre