000
AXNT20 KNHC 030425
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jun 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 18W, from 15N 
southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant
convection near the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 10N27W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N27W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is present from 04N to 09N and between 33W and 47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The interaction between an upper level low situated in the NE Gulf
of America, a dissipating stationary front stretching from
northern Florida into the central Gulf waters and plenty of
tropical moisture result in numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms over much of the SE Gulf waters. Mariners in the
area can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning and higher seas.
Generally dry weather conditions are noted elsewhere.

Weak high pressure over the eastern United States extends
southwestward into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds and seas of 1-3 ft (0.5-1 m) across much of
the western half of the basin. Similar marine conditions are
evident in the SE Gulf, while light to gentle winds and slight
seas prevail in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate tonight.
Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and 
evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of
Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Expect 
moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas across the western 
and south- central Gulf Tue through Fri between a trough over 
northern Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An active weather pattern is producing numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms mainly north of the NW Caribbean. However,
some of the storms are also impacting western and central Cuba and
nearshore waters. The remainder of the Caribbean is under the
influence of a deep plume of Saharan dust that is supporting
generally dry weather conditions.

An extensive 1035 mb subtropical ridge centered near 39N41W in the
central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean waters,
supporting a tight pressure gradient. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass captured strong to near gale-force easterly trade 
winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft
(2.5-3 m). Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate
seas are found in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Light to gentle
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough seas
will expand across most of the Caribbean through mid-week, then
diminish slightly toward the end of the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Favorable upper level pattern and plenty of tropical moisture
combine to support numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the SW North Atlantic, especially west of 70W. These storms
are also affecting Florida and the Bahamas. Frequent lightning,
strong gusty winds and locally higher seas are likely near strong
thunderstorms. A recent scatterometer pass indicate that the
strongest convection is producing wind gusts to gale force. 

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by the
extensive subtropical ridge positioned to the west of the Azores.
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in
the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas south of 25N and west of 50W. Similar winds and seas
are noted between 35W and 50W and also north of 20N and east of
35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move into the
region between northeast Florida and Bermuda Tue. The front will 
dissipate southeast of Bermuda through mid week. Otherwise, high 
pressure will dominate through the week, with a tightening 
pressure gradient leading to pulsing fresh to strong winds off the
north coast of Hispaniola starting Tue night.

$$
Delgado