000
AXNT20 KNHC 022346
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jun 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 16W, from 15N southward,
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection
is noted about this wave from 02.5N to 10N between 10W and 24W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward to near 09.5N23W.
The ITCZ continues from 09.5N23W through 08N28W to 06N53W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm N and 60 nm 
S of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A modest stationary front curves westward from a 1016 mb low 
offshore of St Augustine, Florida near 30N80W, southwestward to Ft
Pierce, then westward across central Florida and Tampa Bay to the
central Gulf near 27.5N90W, then turns northwestward and inland
across southwestern Louisiana near 93W. Scattered showers and 
strong thunderstorms are occurring over the southeast Gulf east of
87W, and south and central Florida then eastward through the
Bahamas. Outside of thunderstorm induced strong winds, gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds with 1 to 3 ft seas are present for most of the
Gulf, except gentle southerly winds across the SE Gulf south of
the front. Gusty winds and locally higher seas are occurring near
strong thunderstorms.

For the forecast, a weakening stationary front from Tampa Bay to 
SW Louisiana will dissipate tonight, with associated showers and 
thunderstorms over the southeast Gulf gradually diminishing. 
Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and 
evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of
Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Expect 
moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas across the western 
and south- central Gulf Tue through Fri between a trough over 
northern Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A subtropical ridge centered on a 1035 mb high near 39N41W 
extends a broad ridge southwestward to 73W just east of the 
Bahamas. This pattern is sustaining a typical trade-wind pattern 
across the Caribbean Sea east of 80W. Unstable atmospheric 
conditions prevail north of 20N across the Greater Antilles and 
Bahamas, where scattered to locally numerous convection is 
occurring over and south of Cuba, and from the northern Yucatan 
Peninsula eastward into the Yucatan Channel to 86W. Elsewhere, 
strong convection earlier to day near Nicaragua and over the Gulf 
of Honduras has shifted westward and well inland. A low level wind
surge is moving through the central basin and producing fresh to 
strong E to E-SE surface winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present 
at the south- central basin. Mainly fresh E to ESE winds and 7 to 
10 ft seas across the central basin. Moderate to locally fresh SE 
winds prevail across NW portions where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Light 
to gentle monsoonal winds with 1 to 3 ft seas are found near Costa
Rica and Panama. Moderate E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail 
across the eastern Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough 
seas will expand from the central basin westward across most of 
the Caribbean through mid-week, as high pressure builds modestly
north of the region. High pressure will then begin to shift NE and
away from the region Fri into the upcoming weekend, leading to
diminishing winds and seas. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Very active weather prevails across the south half of Florida, the
Bahamas and Straits of Florida eastward to near 70W, as 
convergent southerly low-level winds are coupling with upper-level
divergent flow induced by an upper low over the NE Gulf of 
America. Frequent lightning, strong gusty winds and locally higher
seas are likely near strong thunderstorms. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms extend farther northeast, south of Bermuda 
from 26N to 31N between 59W and 70W. Convergent trades are 
generating widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
near the ITCZ and coast of French Guiana and Suriname. Refer to 
the Tropical Wave and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional 
weather in the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

A subtropical ridge extends southwestward from a 1035 mb over the
north-central Atlantic near 39N41W and across 31N58W to near the 
central Bahamas. This ridge is supporting gentle to moderate E to
SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas north of 20N between 45W and 65W,
with winds then becoming S to SW to the Florida coast/Bahamas. 
Seas outside of strong convection are 3 to 5 ft there. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident north of 20N 
between 35W and 46W. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N 
between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate. 

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak stationary front will 
meander over the far NW waters from Bermuda to Florida over the 
next couple of days, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the 
adjacent waters W of 70W. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate 
through the week, with a tightening pressure gradient leading to 
pulsing fresh to strong winds off the north coast of Hispaniola 
starting Tue night.

$$
Stripling