822 AXNT20 KNHC 012309 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Jun 1 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2305 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 15N and between 22W and 30W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 07N28W. The ITCZ extends from 07N28W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is present north of 05N and east of 19W. Similar convection is noted within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 32W and 44W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak stationary front extends from SW Florida to SE Texas and a few showers are seen in the SE Gulf waters. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a weak ridge centered over the southern United States. Gentle to moderate winds and primarily slight seas are prevalent across the basin. Latest satellite imagery and local observations indicate visibility down to 5 nm over the northwestern Gulf, and Bay of Campeche due to agricultural fires. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate through Mon. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas are expected across most of the Gulf through the early part of the week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas across the western and south- central Gulf Tue through Fri between a trough over northern Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft sustains a few showers in the NW Caribbean and plenty of high clouds in the eastern Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America support fresh to strong easterly trade winds across much of the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough seas will expand across most of the Caribbean through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and southern Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the frontal boundary, especially north of 24N and west of 60W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted across much of the SW North Atlantic, especially west of 60W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a strong 1033 mb high pressure system centered west of the Azores. This ridge forces moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-9 ft south of 24N and west of 45W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are found between 30W and 45W. Similar winds are present east of 30W and north of 20N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh SW winds and moderate to locally rough seas will persist into tonight east of a front extending from Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida. The front will dissipate Mon ahead of another cold front moving into the region between northeast Florida and Bermuda Tue. The front will dissipate southeast of Bermuda through mid week. High pressure will build in the wake of the front with fresh to strong winds off the north coast of Hispaniola late Wed and Thu. $$ Delgado