421 
AXNT20 KNHC 312325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Jun 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 18W, south of
17N, and moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 04N to 17N and east of 29W.

A SW Caribbean tropical wave is located along 79W, south of 16N, 
and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are evident in the
SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Senegal and Gambia, then curves southwestward to 06N25W. An ITCZ 
continues from 06N25W to 03N41W. A few showers are evident from
01N to 08N and between 33W and 47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from SW Florida to the central waters of the
Gulf of America. A few showers are seen near the frontal boundary
in the SE Gulf. Similar convection is also present off the coasts
of Tamaulipas and northern Veracruz. The Gulf is under the
influence of a weak ridge that supports moderate to occasionally
fresh N-NE winds off northern and western Yucatan. Seas in these
waters are slight. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to locally moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a weak front over the northern Gulf will drift
southward and then stall and dissipate through early Sun.
Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and
evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay
of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward.
Elsewhere high pressure will build in the wake of the front with 
gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of the Gulf
through early next week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds and 
building seas across the western and south- central Gulf Tue into
Thu between a trough over northern Mexico and high pressure over 
the Carolinas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough and convergence at the surface is helping 
to induce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the 
islands in the western Greater Antilles. Some of the convection is
also affecting the regional waters. The strong upper level winds
are also inducing high clouds over much of the eastern Caribbean,
along with some showers. 

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the central
Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America sustain
fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds across much of the
central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
found in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, Fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough seas
will expand across most of the Caribbean through the middle of
next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N74W and
continues southwestward to southern Florida. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of the frontal boundary,
mainly north of 25N and west of 68W. Moderate to locally fresh
SW-W winds and seas of 5-9 ft are noted north of 26N and west of
62W. Farther east, a stationary front extends from a 1020 mb low 
pressure in the central Atlantic near 31N45W to 25N54W. A few
showers are seen near this boundary.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a strong 1030 mb high
pressure system centered just west of the Azores. This ridge
supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft
south of 22N and west of 35W. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh to
locally strong NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are occurring from 24N
to 29N and east of 19W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds and rough
seas are ahead of a weak cold front moving into the waters off 
between Florida and Bermuda. These winds and seas will diminish 
through Sun as the front stalls and dissipates. A second weak 
front will move off the southeast U.S. coast Mon and reach from 
Bermuda to east- central Florida by late Tue, then dissipate as it
moves eastward through mid week. High pressure will build in the 
wake of the front with fresh to strong winds off the north coast 
of Hispaniola late Wed and Thu.

$$
Delgado