314 AXNT20 KNHC 310537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat May 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been analyzed near 80W from 17N southward through the Panama/Costa Rica border, moving westward around 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the tropical wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 03N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N-07N east of 48W. GULF OF AMERICA... As of 0300 UTC, a weak stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle near 30N86W to the lower Texas coast near 28N98W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 29N east of 87W. Outside of the areas of convection, winds across the Gulf this evening are moderate or weaker as a 1016 mb high is located over the central Gulf near 25N87W. Seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, the weak front over the northern Gulf will drift southward and then stall and dissipate through early Sun. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. High pressure will build in the wake of the front with gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of the Gulf through early next week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas across the western and south- central Gulf Tue and Wed between a trough over northern Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough extends over the far south-central Caribbean to a 1009 mb low on the Colombia coast near 10N75W. The pressure gradient between ridging north of the Caribbean and the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft over the S central and SW Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough seas will expand across most of the Caribbean through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak 1017 mb low is centered near 30N45W with a stationary front extending west-southwestward to 25N60W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 29N between 35W and 43W. Outside the areas of convection, no significant winds are occurring in association with this low and front. A cold front moving across the SE United States is helping to induce fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front north of 27N west of 70W. Numerous moderate convection is noted north of 29N west of 73W. Within a 120 NM of the Morocco and Western Saharan coastlines, N to NE winds are fresh. The 1017 mb low is weakening the north-south pressure gradient across the tropical Atlantic, with the NE to E trades only moderate to locally fresh. Seas are 3-7 ft across the tropical and subtropical N Atlantic this evening. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are expected ahead of a weak cold front that will move into the waters off northeast Florida through early Sat. The front will stall and dissipate through Sun. These winds and seas will diminish through Sun. A second weak front will move off the southeast U.S. coast Mon and reach from Bermuda to east-central Florida by late Tue, then dissipate as it moves eastward through mid week. High pressure will build in the wake of the front with fresh to strong winds off the north coast of Hispaniola late Wed. $$ Landsea