271 AXNT20 KNHC 302339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat May 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been analyzed along 80W from 17N southward through central Panama, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the tropical wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W to 03N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 09N between 20W and 45W. GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front resides along the northern Gulf Coast, and continues as a stationary front along coastal Texas. Moderate W winds are occurring in the northeastern Gulf ahead of the front. Otherwise, ridging prevails over the remainder of the basin, supporting gentle to locally moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move into the northern Gulf overnight, then stall and dissipate through early Sun. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Elsewhere, high pressure building behind the front will support gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of the Gulf through early next week. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas across the western and south- central Gulf Tue and Wed between a trough over northern Mexico and high pressure over the Carolinas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough extends over the far south-central Caribbean, and a 1009 mb low resides along the trough. Weak ridging is noted across much of the rest of the basin. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft across the central basin. Locally strong winds are noted just offshore of northern Colombia, which is promoting seas of 8 to 10 ft west of the strongest winds. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted in the eastern Caribbean, with seas of 2 to 4 ft in the northwestern basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough seas will expand across most of the Caribbean through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Weak 1018 mb low pressure is centered near 31N44W. A cold front extends southwest from the low to 27N51W, where it continues southwestward to 26N59W as a stationary front. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring to the east of the front, with moderate to locally fresh NE winds occurring to the north. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds are developing offshore of Florida to 70W and north of the Bahamas, ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern U.S. Otherwise, ridging extends over the remainder of the basin, supporting moderate or weaker trades and 4 to 7 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas will occur ahead of a weak cold front that will move into the waters off northeast Florida through early Sat, then stall and dissipate through Sun. These winds and seas will diminish through Sun. Looking ahead, a second weak front will move off the southeast U.S. coast Mon and reach from Bermuda to east-central Florida by late Tue, then dissipate as it moves eastward through mid week. High pressure following the front may support fresh to strong winds off the north coast of Hispaniola late Wed. $$ ADAMS