000 AXNT20 KNHC 301557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri May 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Based on upper air observations, a tropical wave is analyzed along 77W from Kingston, Jamaica, southward to far western Colombia. The wave is moving westward at an uncertain 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 04N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N east of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is also from 02N to 06N between 21W and 43W. GULF OF AMERICA... Ridging prevails across most of the Gulf, due to a westward extension of the subtropical Atlantic high pressure. A surface trough is analyzed in the central Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle return flow prevails across the Gulf, with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Moderate to locally fresh W winds will develop this afternoon in the northeastern Gulf, ahead of a cold front moving through the southern U.S. The front will push into the basin late today into Sat then stall and dissipate through Sun. High pressure will build over the northeastern Gulf in the wake of the front early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure ridging prevails across the Caribbean, provided by the subtropical Atlantic high pressure. The latest scatterometer data indicates strong trades in the southwestern Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, with 7-9 ft seas. Elsewhere in the central Caribbean, trades are fresh to locally strong with 5-7 ft seas. In the eastern and western Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas are expected across the southwestern and central Caribbean today before these winds expand across the eastern and central basin this weekend. Moderate to rough seas are expected over these waters. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through this weekend, then increase in coverage to the remainder of the western Caribbean early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Weak 1018 mb low pressure is centered near 31N45W. A cold front extends southwest from the low to 27N51W, where a stalled front then continues to 26N62W. Showers are along the front, with moderate to fresh winds in the vicinity per the latest satellite scatterometer. Moderate or weaker trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh S to SW winds offshore of Florida will strengthen, with rough seas developing, north of 28N and west of 65W by early Sat as a cold front moves into the western Atlantic. Winds will turn to the W and slowly diminish behind the front Sat through Sat night, before the front weakens and lifts northeastward on Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front into next week. $$ Mahoney