173 AXNT20 KNHC 300833 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri May 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W south of 15N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Limited convection is noted with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast Africa near 14N17W and extends southwestward to near 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 04N30W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure prevails over the eastern Gulf, with a surface trough just west of the Yucatan peninsula. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the surface trough is supporting moderate winds N and W of the Yucatan peninsula. Light to gentle winds are over the eastern Gulf near the area of high pressure. Gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range N of the Yucatan peninsula, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Moderate to locally fresh W winds will develop this afternoon in the northeastern Gulf, ahead of a cold front moving through the southern U.S. The front will push into the basin late today into Sat. High pressure will build over the northeastern Gulf in the wake of the front early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A high pressure ridge extends along 27N/28N over the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and The Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south Central Caribbean. Fresh winds are elsewhere E of 80W. Fresh to strong winds are pulsing over the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the south central Caribbean. Seas of 4-7 ft are noted elsewhere, except S of Cuba where seas are in the 2-4 ft range. For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas are expected across the southwestern and central Caribbean today before these winds expand across the eastern and central basin this weekend. Moderate to rough seas are expected over these waters. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through this weekend, then increase in coverage to the remainder of the western Caribbean early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary enters the waters near 31N45W and extends SW to near 26N64W. High pressure prevails elsewhere N of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Moderate winds are also noted W of 70W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the waters N of 20N. S of 20N, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Elsewhere over the waters N of 20N, seas are in the 3-5 ft range. S of 20N, seas are in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh S to SW winds offshore of Florida will strengthen, with rough seas developing, north of 28N and west of 65W by early Sat as a cold front moves into the western Atlantic. Winds will turn to the W and slowly diminish behind the front Sat through Sat night, before the front weakens and lifts northeastward on Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front into next week. $$ AL