265 AXNT20 KNHC 292051 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC FRI May 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2010 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave near 59W south of 15N is moving westward toward the eastern Caribbean at 10 to 15 kt. The tropical wave may be enhancing a few thunderstorms inland over northwestern Guyana and northeastern Venezuela along the sea breeze. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W through western Panama, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the Caribbean coasts of western Panama and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic over the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and extends southwestward to 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 03N to 06N between 12W and 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving eastward between the mouth of the Mississippi River the Big Bend area of Florida. Areas of smoke from agricultural and forest fires over southern Mexico are causing slight limitations to visibility, primarily over the western Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are possible over the Bay of Campeche, but gentle SE winds are noted elsewhere. Wave heights are 3 to 5 ft in the Bay of Campeche and 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche through this weekend as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Locally strong winds will be possible tonight. Generally moderate E to SE winds are likely over the central and western Gulf of America through Fri, with gentle to locally moderate SE to SW winds in the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh W winds are expected to develop Fri afternoon in the northeastern Gulf, ahead of a cold front moving through the southern U.S. The front will push into the basin late Fri into Sat, with moderate N winds expected in the wake of the front Sat morning. Looking ahead, high pressure is slated to build over the northeastern Gulf Sun into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Earlier recent scatterometer satellite image confirmed fresh to strong trade winds off Colombia, and a large area of moderate to fresh winds elsewhere across the south-central basin. These winds are supported by a strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed seas of 7 to 10 across the central Caribbean, with maximum seas off Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds are also ongoing over the Gulf of Honduras, where wave heights are 5 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate breezes are evident elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas. In addition to the thunderstorms off Panama and Costa Rica, a few showers and thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Cuba. For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds and rough seas will occur across the southwestern and central Caribbean through Fri as ridging prevails over the western Atlantic. Winds may pulse to near-gale force late tonight offshore of northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Pulsing fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas are then expected across the eastern and central basin this weekend as high pressure drifts eastward into the central Atlantic. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through this weekend. Looking ahead, a tropical wave, currently analyzed east of the Lesser Antilles, will trek westward into the central Caribbean this weekend. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will accompany this wave, and gusty winds and rough seas are expected near this activity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary extends from weak 1019 mb low pressure centered near 31N49W to 26N60W and then is stationary to 29N72W. Fresh to strong SW are noted within 180 nm south of the low and east of the front. Farther east, a surface ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 34N26W to south of the low pressure near 24N50W. Gentle breezes and 4 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 20N. Fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are ongoing south of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh S to SW winds will develop offshore of Florida and north of the Bahamas by early Fri as a strengthening pressure gradient develops between high pressure in the eastern Gulf of America and a cold front moving through the southern U.S. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are expected north of 28N and west of 65W by early Sat as the front pushes offshore into the western Atlantic. Winds will turn to the W and slowly diminish behind the front Sat through Sat night, before the front weakens and lifts northeastward on Sun. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will pulse south of 23N through Fri. Looking ahead, high pressure is slated to build over the central and western Atlantic Sun into next week. $$ Christensen